NBA Thoughts 1/3/17

NBA Thoughts 1/3/17

Yesterday was a rough one for many, including myself. Value plays just didn’t work out and because of all the last minute news, mistakes were bound to happen. Tonight we have a brand new slate which seems pretty similar in the sense that there isn’t much value, but there are high-priced guys we would like in our lineups. Let’s dive into the night and see which direction we should be headed.

The Top-Tier

DeMarcus Cousins – On paper this seems like a great matchup, and it is. Denver gives up points in bunches in the paint and seems to have one of the softest interior defenses in the league. On DraftKings, Cousins has reached $11,400 which is probably the highest for his career in DFS and that’s worrisome. It’s going to be a matter of value and if we get enough to afford him on a night where the matchup can’t be much better.

John Wall – This one is fairly straight forward. Wall is the second most expensive player on the slate with one of the worst matchups in the league. Dallas is starting to get healthy again and that means a really slow pace and suffocating defense. There is no way we can pay this price tag for a high-priced player in a 200 game total. There are plenty of mid-ranged options that we can pivot too instead of playing Wall.

Karl-Anthony Towns – KAT is also at his highest price ever! DraftKings dynamic pricing is forcing us to go balanced using a core of mid-tier players. Many fall into the trap of playing at least one top-tier guy in their lineups but this is a slate where the top-tier seems like a total trap. Although the matchup with Embiid is one we’ll all be watching, Towns will have to play perfect on the road for him to reach tournament value. It also helps that there are some mid-tier centers that are in great spots.

Guys that make it happen

The mid-tier is definitely the strongest tier on today’s slate. The top guys, as mentioned above, are in terrible spots and could be traps tonight. Here are some of the mid-tier guys that are underpriced and could catapult you to the top of leaderboards.

DraftKingsFanduel
Wilson ChandlerWilson Chandler
Andre DrummondT.J. McConnell
T.J. McConnellJon Leuer
Joel EmbiidJoel Embiid
Isaiah ThomasAndrew Wiggins

 

The mid-tier is definitely the way to go, as these guy not only are in good spots, but have a strong chance at outperforming their salary. It might seem scary to fade the top guys and make a lineup without a marquee name, but that does seem like the correct choice for now. As news develops, I’ll drop some nuggets in the premium slack chat.

Feel free to message me with any questions on Twitter (@MLora) or in the premium slack chat where I’ll be answering questions leading up to lock. I hope tonight treats us a little better than yesterday did and I’m looking forwards to seeing those screenshots once again. Till next time, party animals!