NBA Thoughts 1/30/17

We’ve got a 5-game slate on tap tonight with a couple of very targetable games and situations. Let’s dive right into my favorite DraftKings plays!

Yogi Ferrell $3,500 — The Mavs signed Ferrell on the fly and immediately played him 35 minutes in a surprising upset of the Spurs. In that game last night, he was good for 26.5 FP’s on only 3-9 from the field. Tonight, the Mavs take on the Cavs at home, and with Deron Williams and JJ Barea both expected to miss again, Ferrell should earn another start and play big minutes.  The Mavs are already very thin in the backcourt, and with aging veterans Wes Matthews and Devin Harris in the rotation, a blowout by the Cavs wouldn’t hurt Ferrell’s minute expectations at all, though Vegas doesn’t expect a blowout to happen anyway. Lastly, Kyrie and the Cavs are near the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards, all of which adds up to Ferrell being a very solid value play.

Seth Curry $5,300 — Curry is coming off the best game of his young career: 24 points, 10 boards and 5 assists against the mighty Spurs. And while seeing the Cavs coming up next on the schedule might usually give us pause in rostering against them, it’s worth noting that they have been horrendous of late defensively, giving up 110.4 points per game over their last 10 games. We can also get Wes Matthews at SG (or SF) for only $4500 and I wouldn’t blame you if you went that route either. The important thing to remember is that we should not be worried about rostering against the Cavs until they prove that they have figured it out defensively. Curry is getting huge minutes and is a primary component of their offense in its current form.

LeBron James $10,000 — It’s always tough to know when to roster LeBron, though it obviously makes it easier when we know that one of the other of the big three will miss, as is the case tonight. As expected, LeBron gets a nice usage bump when he doesn’t share the court with Kyrie and Love, but it’s on the glass where he really picks it up when Love misses or gets injured, averaging ten a game during those times. The added rebounds should give LeBron a legit shot at a triple-double and the corresponding bonus points awarded by DK.  The game has a four-point spread, meaning there’s a great chance that LeBron finishes the game and plays his usual compliment of minutes.

Karl Anthony-Towns $10,800 — KAT has been on an absolute tear of late, averaging 56.5 FP’s over his last ten games. The guy is an absolute monster. Why not take the seemingly automatic fifty+ FP’s with upside for more and move on? One of the most underrated aspects of KAT’s game is ability to avoid foul trouble. He never puts up an absolute dud because he always plays heavy minutes. In fact, we have to go back 14 games to find the last time KAT didn’t play 35+ minutes, and in that game, he played….wait for it…34 minutes! The defense of the Magic frontcourt shouldn’t pose any problems, particularly with Vucevic as the starting center matching many of KAT’s minutes.

Andre Drummond $7,700 — The Celtics have one of the worst rebounding differentials in the league, and Drummond is third in the league in rebounding, averaging 13.6 per game. While Drummond doesn’t quite have the upside of Whiteside (who is also in a great matchup tonight), we don’t have to worry about his health as we do with Whiteside, and can fire him up with confidence. Drummond does earn the occasional benching for playing with a lack of energy, but he played very well last time out, and given that this is only his second game in the last week, it’s reasonable to expect that he will come out playing hard and dominating the glass against a team that really struggles in that area.