NBA Thoughts 1/27/17

NBA Thoughts 1/27/17

 

It’s Friday night in the association! Tonight features a stacked 10-game slate with huge tournaments across the industry. With so many teams to dissect, I’ll steer you in the right direction when it comes to roster construction, value, and who to pay up for. Let’s get to it!

 

Roster Construction

Although tonight features 20 different teams, there are a handful of guys who are just way too underpriced for their given roll. If we’re talking about optimal roster construction and opportunity cost, there are a few really strong plays that are hard to pass. I’ll go over two positions that showcase really strong plays and make it hard to deviate.

Center – It’s no secret that Whiteside has been nursing an injury and is now out for this game. That leaves a huge minute bump for Willie Reed who has proven to be a fantasy point per minute producer. With Reed’s price sitting below $5k on every site, it makes it tough to pass up the 28-minute floor and the workload he can get in that time. Guys like Horford, Lopez, Monroe, and Howard are all in great spots, but if Reed can come close to or surpass their production for a fraction of the cost, we would gain a significant advantage on the field.

Shooting Guard – This one won’t be a secret either. With DeRozan out, Norman Powell has been outstanding. Granted his price reflects that, but there is nothing else that the position that warrants serious consideration. Guys like Beal, Wade, Shumpert, and Butler all are priced where they should be don’t provide enough “value”. Powell will be extremely highly owned and makes a strong fade candidate if you play limited lineups, but it seems like the optimal play for now.

 

Underpriced

If you couple the advice above with the underpriced players at each position, you will quickly run into what seems to be the most optimal lineup. Because of dynamic pricing, we can find price inefficiencies in matchups that aren’t necessarily the toughest. Here are some players that are too cheap for their projected workload.

DraftKingsFanduel
Carmelo AnthonyGoran Dragic
Paul MillsapJeff Teague
Derrick RoseCarmelo Anthony
Jeff TeaguePaul Millsap
Kristaps PorzingisPaul George

 

Most of these guys are sitting at $7k with upside for 45-point games. There isn’t much value, but the few guys that are available are just enough to fit all these guys. This seems like the most optimal way to go while still having a nice ceiling and upside to take down a tournament.

As always, you can message me on Twitter (@MLora) with any concerns. I’ll also be in the premium slack chat answering questions leading up to lock. The ‘Deeper Dive’ will confirm most of these plays and analyze any news in depth. Till next time, party animals!