NBA Thoughts 12/28/16
What’s up fellas. Listed below are a few of my favorite targets for tonight’s 10-game slate. Make sure to turn into the Deeper Dive at 5:00 EST for thoughts on every game! #LetsGetIT
John Wall $9500 – Wall has four straight double-doubles against Jeff Teague dating back to 2015. He is a much better shooter at home, especially from deep: 40% at home and an unbelievably terrible 20% on the road. The Wiz get a small bump in pace going against the Pacers, and we can put Wall’s floor at right around 40 fantasy points, with plenty of room for upside. There isn’t a whole lot to say about Wall that DFS players don’t already know. He’s as safe a play as there is, especially at home, and in a game where the Wiz are expected to score around 109 points, he’ll be at the heart of putting those points on the board.
Jamal Crawford $5400 – Doc Rivers has said he doesn’t expect either Chris Paul or JJ Redick to suit up tonight. With both of them missing last game, Crawford entered the starting lineup, played 36 minutes, took 23 shots, and scored 41 fantasy points. He’s the clear number one option on offense for the Clippers when both Paul and Redick are out. If Paul is a go, Crawford is unplayable at 5400. If Redick plays but Paul doesn’t, Crawford loses some value but is still solid. If both are out, as expected, Crawford becomes a very strong play.
Tobias Harris $5500 – Through two games coming off the bench, Harris has slotted well into his new role for the Pistons. He’s played 29 and 32 minutes and put up 35.5 and 37.5 fantasy points. Though he has shot unsustainably well from three in those two games, he hasn’t picked up a steal or block in those two games, which helps to balance his unsustainable rate from deep. In addition, Harris has been on the court to finish these last two games where he’s come off the bench. While there’s always some risk that Morris will get hot and limit Harris’ minutes on any given night, the possibility of that happening doesn’t appear likely at the moment. I would expect Harris to continue to get double digit shot attempts and to be the main offensive focal point when he’s on the floor with the bench unit.
Nikola Mirotic $4600 – Miro is out of the doghouse and back into coach Fred Hoiberg’s good graces. He’s seen over 30 minutes the last two games and has responded with nearly a fantasy point per minute of production. The possible return of Doug McDermott tonight could impact his minutes slightly, but that risk is more than made up for by a juicy matchup against the Brooklyn Nets bench. A motivated and confident Mirotic is not limited to simply chucking from deep, but provides contributions across the board, including rebounds and steals. Mirotic should have a fairly safe floor and a very good ceiling at 4600, especially if he gets hot from three.
Nikola Jokic $6400 – The only one holding back Jokic is Jokic himself. His supreme talent can often be mitigated by idiotic fouls that keep his minutes unnecessarily low. However, the low minutes have also helped to keep his salary low compared to his true talent level. Before last game, Mike Malone publicly called him out on his dumb fouls and Jokic responded with 31 minutes of production. As long as his price stays in the 6k range, he’ll be one of, if not the best GPP option on the board on any given night he plays. Who else offers 60 FP upside at 6400? And tonight he gets a very solid matchup against the Timberwolves. I expect Jokic to be more highly owned than he was last game, but with tonight’s large slate, we should still be able to get him at reasonably low ownership.