NBA Thoughts 12/9/16 (Premium)

I am headed to NYC for the DraftKings Football Live Championship today, so NBA Thoughts will be a bit abbreviated to just a few a of my favorite DK plays tonight. This is written early morning, so take note that a lot could change. Good luck tonight! #letsgetit

Deron Williams – $6000

After finally getting healthy, Williams has averaged 32.5 minutes and 33.25 DK points per game over his past four games. He was pulled out early in two of those four games because of blowouts, which suggests that as long as the game holds close and nothing funky happens– Vegas expects tonight’s game to be about a four point spread–  it’s safe to pencil in DWill for around 34-36 minutes. In addition, he gets an up-pace game versus Jeff Teague and Indiana, who give up on average the eighth most DK points to point guards on the season. There’s nothing fun about rostering Deron Williams, but he’s playing well of late, getting the minutes, and in a strong spot at home versus the Pacers.

Lou Williams – $6600

While it’s advisable to jump off the Lou Williams bandwagon at some point, especially as his price continues to climb,  it’s probably best to wait until after tonight’s matchup with the Suns. Vegas expects the Lakers to score around 109 points, which isn’t surprising given that the Suns don’t play defense and are the highest-paced team in the league, and Williams should be one of the major beneficiaries of that expected total. With the injury to DeAngelo Russell, and Jordan Clarkson struggling, Williams has filled the void and shouldered a huge offensive load over the past few games. The Lakers blowout loss to the Rockets kept Williams’ minutes low last game, but he should bump back up into the low-to-mid thirties and be the primary play-maker for the Lakers offense.

Marcus Smart – $5500

The Celtics dismantling of the Magic last game kept Marcus Smart limited to only 23 minutes, though he still scored a respectable 24.75 FP’s. In tonight’s competitive matchup with the Raptors, we should expect Smart and Avery Bradley to both get heavy minutes, with Terry Rozier rotating in as the third guard. Smart has a skimpy usage rate of 13.7% when he shares the court with Isaiah Thomas, but when he doesn’t play with Thomas, his usage skyrockets to 26%, a number that is unaffected by playing alongside Bradley. If Smart is hitting his shots, he’s capable of a really big game. If he’s not, he should still rack up enough peripherals in heavy minutes to make for a solid play.

Julius Randle – $6000

It’s always scary to roster Julius Randle. Over the last ten games, his minutes have fluctuated between 21 and 37, and he’s averaged only a little under 28 . And his play during that stretch has been as inconsistent as his minutes. However, he has two consecutive double-doubles,  and tonight a juicy matchup with the Suns, who give up on average the third most FP’s to power forwards. Randle’s main appeal is his tremendous upside. He has games of 44 and 52.5 FP’s  in his last ten, and though there’s a chance that something weird could happen with his minutes, he makes for a very intriguing play in an ideal situation.

Tyson Chandler – $4400

Both the Lakers and the Suns are in the bottom half of the league in field goal %, and given the kind of crazy pace expected in this game and the number of shots launched, there should be a ton of rebounds available to Chandler. If he can get a few put-backs and otherwise easy buckets, a double-double in 25-30 minutes should be very doable. He’s got the upside for 35-40 FP’s, especially in this type of game, and at $4400, that’s about as good as you can ask for.