NBA Thoughts 11/9/16
A few of my favorite plays for this big Wednesday slate:
- Mason Plumlee – Plumlee has been a favorite of mine all season as he is more invovled in the offense than ever before and has carried a price tag around 5k for most of the season. The problem has been that his minutes have been inconsistent, but with Al-Farouq Aminu missing tonight’s game against the Clippers and the Clippers playing two bigs for most of the game, Plumlee is likely to see 30+ minutes and has a very strong history against the Clippers on a point-per-minute basis. If the Blazers are going to keep pace with the Clippers tonight they are going to need Plumlee and he could be in for a very big game.
- Chris Paul/Blake Griffin – I have made it a point to bring this duo up in nearly all my write ups and on the FanVice Deeper Dive show. These two are the entire offense for the Clippers and should destroy the Blazers tonight who are missing one of their best defenders in Aminu. Paul and Griffin have been a bit unfortunate this year with lopsided victories limiting their upside, but if this game stays close they could smash their value (especially on DK where they are way underpriced) and they are always safe for 30+ fantasy points in any game scenario.
- Ersan Ilyasova on FanDuel ($3,700) – Ilyasova is playing big minutes right now for the 76ers and has a great matchup against the Pacers who can’t stop anybody. Ilyasova is a high-usage player in this offense and has surprisingly high upside for a bench player. He’s perhaps my favorite punt play of the night on FanDuel and a player that I expect to easily exceed value.
- Derrick Rose – Rose looks better than he has in years for the Knicks right now (at least from a fantasy perspective) and is heavily involved in the Knicks offense, ranking top 15 in the league in drives per game. He’s getting to the basket and against a fast-paced Nets team that plays little defense and is also coming off a high energy game against the Timberwolves, Rose should feast early and often with potential for a 40+ fantasy point performance at a reasonable price tag.
- Marcin Gortat – Gortat is getting a ton of run this year with Scott Brooks at the helm, and he’s only been a high point per minute producer throughout his career. His price continues to climb, but it is still too low for what you can expect out of the Polish Hammer. He’s also got a fantastic matchup tonight against the Celtics bigs who are poor at protecting the rim. Expect Gortat to double-double once again in 35+ minutes. He’s a fantastic play in all formats.
- (GPP) Sergio Rodriguez – If you look at some of the advanced metrics on nba.com/stats like dribbles, passes completed, assist opportunities, and time with the basketball, you’ll see Rodriguez is really in charge of running the Sixers offense. The ball is in his hands nearly as often as the true superstars of the league, and that typically leads to fantasy production. Throw in a good matchup with the fast paced but terrible defense of the Indians Pacers and yo have a high-upside GPP play that not many people will be on given how deep point guard is.
- James Harden – I’m a huge James Harden fan and will roster him most slates this season, but not against the Spurs with Kawhi Leonard draped all over him all game long. Kawhi is the best defender in the league for a player like James Harden and this is a relatively simple fade for me despite how good Harden has been. Don’t get cute here.
- Russell Westbrook – Paying up for Westbrook tonight seems a bit silly to me given the slower paced game against the Raptors and the stout defense of Kyle Lowry. Could Westrbrook go off here despite the tough matchup? Of course. But paying this enormous price tag for a sub par match up is not a winning long term play, even in a GPP as other people will still play him tonight despite the bad matchup.