NBA Thoughts 11/30/16

Today I am simply going to give you who I feel is the biggest single lock of the day, backed up by statistics, that I personally will have in nearly every lineup and without whom you should not venture forth into the DFS landscape. Let’s get right to it.

  • Goran Dragic, PG, Miami Heat — Dragic is my favorite DFS play of the entire season so far. I have so many good things to say about him I hardly know where to start. I’ll just start listing them off:

 

  • The Denver Nuggets, for the season, allow the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards. Right off the bat, this is a tremendous matchup for Dragic.

 

  • Goran Dragic ranks third in the NBA in drives per game, per the wonderful statistics at com/stats (seriously, spend some time here, it is an AMAZING resource). This is a list you want to be on. Here are the other players in the top in this statistic: Isaiah Thomas, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, and DeMar DeRozan. If you’re driving to the hoop, you’re generally scoring, getting to the foul line, or creating assist opportunities for yourself. You know who else ranks highly on this list? Dragic’s teammates Dion Waiters (11th in NBA in drives/game) and Justise Winslow (25th in NBA in drives/game). Both guys will be out for tonight’s game in Denver. That was also the case for the Heat’s last game against the Celtics, where Dragic went nuts for 58 DraftKings points in 38 minutes. With Waiters and Winslow out, the Heat’s drive-heavy offensive approach fell entirely on the shoulders of Goran Dragic, who drove to the hoop a whopping 29 times! Without looking at every single game log, I can say with near 100% confidence that is the most times any single player has driven to the hoop this season. While Tyler Johnson may return tonight to cut into some of that workload for Dragic, it is safe to say it will once again be the Goran Dragic show tonight in Denver.

 

  • So we know Dragic is going to spend much of this game working in the pick-and-roll and driving into the paint. Will he have success when he gets there? The Denver Nuggets’ defensive numbers certainly indicate that he will. None of Nikola Jokic, Kenneth Faried, or Jusef Nurkic provide any semblance of rim protection, and it has shown in the numbers. Indeed, the Nuggets have allowed the 3rd most opponent points in the paint. Dragic is going to drive early and often and should have a very high rate of success when he gets there.

 

  • When you put everything together Goran Dragic has, in my opinion, a real chance to be the top overall fantasy producer tonight. Yes — I think there is a semi-realistic chance he bests even Russell Westbrook — at half the cost. Anything can happen in DFS, of course, but my lineups will sink or swim largely on the results of one Goran Dragic. ALL ABOARD! #LetsGetIt