NBA Thoughts 11/2/16 (Premium)
First: apologies for the brevity today, it is a very busy day in DC land. I am going to outline a few of my favorite plays on FanDuel and DraftKings. Expect a more robust column later this week that will go over a few different analytical tools I use everyday and how best to use them to find success in NBA DFS. Remember to check out our Premium NBA Channel on Slack Chat and the Deeper Dive with Loughy and Manny at 5 EST for more NBA thoughts. #LetsGetIt!
Favorite FanDuel Plays
Derrick Rose, PG, $5,700 – The Knicks will host the Rockets who are playing on the second half of a back-to-back after playing the Cavaliers last night. Rose should mostly be guarded by a likely somewhat tired James Harden who has to carry the entire offensive load for the Rockets. There should be little defense played by Harden (or Rose for that matter) as these two trade buckets on the offensive end. Rose’s price point is appealing in what should be a high scoring match up with a game total of 217 and a spread of just one point.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, $4,500 – Never a fun player to roster as he can totally disappear at times, KCP nevertheless has a tremendous matchup against the fast-paced, non-defending Brooklyn Nets. Caldwell-Pope should once again see mid-30s minutes and is one of the most reliable players in the league in terms of how many minutes he will get under coach Stan Van Gundy. KCP should have no trouble reaching value at this price tag and shooting guard is certainly a tough position to fill tonight as it is most nights. Take the price savings and spend up elsewhere.
Carmelo Anthony, SF, $7,500 – Melo has yet to have a truly big game for the Knicks this year but it might be coming tonight against the Rockets. This may be the highest implied team total the Knicks have for a long time playing against the Rockets’ woeful defense, and Melo should eat. His price point of $7,500 is simply too cheap for his ability and role in this offense and he has a huge ceiling for a player with a mid-range price tag.
Tobias Harris, PF, $6,200 – Harris is clearly a keg cog in the Pistons offense and with Reggie Jackson still out has gotten up a few more shots this year and has spent more time with the basketball in his hands. Harris is almost assuredly going to play big minutes in a great match up with the Nets and is a high-floor medium-ceiling option at this price point that is very solid option, especially for cash games. Harris can fill up the stat sheet across multiple categories and is very unlikely to hurt your team.
Steven Adams, C, $5,000 – The Thunder center clearly has a bigger role in the offense this year and is seeing more minutes as well, which should continue with Ersan Ilyasova traded and Jerami Grant likely not yet ready to play tonight. Adams is averaging a whopping 35 minutes per game so far this season and his size will be needed against the big front line of the Clippers. Adams is a fantastic play in all formats at this price point in what should be a fast-paced, high scoring game.
Favorite DraftKings Plays
Chris Paul, PG, $8,400 – CP3 always brings his “A” game against Russell Westbrook. In 25 career matchups, he’s averaged 20.2 points, 10.5 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 2.9 steals. Over their last five meetings, CP3 has even improved on those numbers: 23.2 points, 12.2 assists, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.6 steals. With Westbrook, Harden, and Lillard all on the slate, we can roster Paul as only the fourth most expensive point guard while feeling confident in his chances of eclipsing 50 DK points. We will also likely get him at a reduced ownership %, and can still fill out a quality roster around him given his reasonable price tag. The icing on the cake is that he plays in the last game of the night, which should make for a fun sweat.
Bradley Beal, SG, $5,400 – The Wiz are 0-2 and hosting the Raptors in a game they would really like to get. There is small risk of a blowout (Vegas has the Raptors as one point favorites) and we can expect Coach Brooks to ride his starters hard to avoid an 0-3 record. Beal is coming off an overtime game three days ago in which he played 40 minutes and took 17 shots. He’s rested, has shown his body can handle heavy minutes, and the Wiz really need a win: all signs point to this being a great spot to catch Beal at a reduced price tag. In addition, in nine career games against the Raptors, he’s averaged around 38 minutes and 30 fantasy points per game.
Jae Crowder, SF, $5,400 – With Al Horford and Kelly Olynyk out, Avery Bradley ailing, and Amir Johnson largely ineffective to start the year, Crowder’s versatility should net him a few extra minutes in tonight’s matchup with the Bulls. Even if he’s not scoring, Crowder fills up the stat sheet, making him a safe play with good upside at his price point. He’s averaging a little over a fantasy point per minute so far this year, and with the chance that he could see a little extra run, he makes for a very appealing and affordable option tonight.
Blake Griffin, PF, $8,600 – If we look at the starters for the Clippers, it’s painfully obvious that only two players have the ability to create offense. Outside of gunner Jamal Crawford off the bench, they don’t have much offensive firepower anywhere on their roster. With an expected total of nearly 108 points, it stands to reason that CP3 and Griffin will be scoring or assisting on the vast majority of the offensive possessions. Like CP3, Griffin is at a price point where we can round out our rosters with quality players instead of reaching for scrubs if we take Westbrook or Harden.
Marc Gasol, C, $6,100– The only thing not to like about Gasol tonight is the minutes restriction. Despite that, he’s still getting around 30 minutes a game, and has a 29.3 usage rate through three games. He’s no longer competing with Zach Randolph for a featured offensive role which allows him greater opportunity in his 30 minutes. Like the Clippers, the Grizzlies don’t have much fire power outside of their top two starters, and with Vegas expecting 106 points, the offensive production will have to come from somewhere. There is also the chance that with Gasol getting last game off for rest, he could creep closer to 35 minutes tonight, depending on the game flow. Now is a really good time to roster Gasol at his heavily discounted price.