NBA Thoughts 1/11/17
Let’s get right into a few of my favorite DraftKings plays for tonight’s 6-game slate.
Mike Conley $6,900 — The main question surrounding Conley all year has been whether he will produce enough in limited minutes to cover his price. The minutes are seemingly no longer an issue as he is 100% healthy and has averaged a little over 37 minutes a game over the past three. Memphis gets a pace-up game tonight against OKC, and while the points and assists will likely be there for Conley, he’ll also have an opportunity for multiple steals against Russell Westbrook, who averages over five turnovers a game. Conley has found his groove of late and tonight’s tough matchup on the road should guarantee heavy minutes and a large share of the offensive load for the Grizzlies.
Evan Turner $3,900 — This guy has been less than mediocre lately. However, the minutes are still there, as he’s averaging about 27 over the past four games. He has games of 20.25 and 24.25 fantasy points during that span. Not great, but not fall-off-the-cliff bad either. Just six days ago his price was $5100. We are catching Turner at a time when his price is likely the lowest it will be all year and he has solid 30-35 point upside. With the lack of exciting shooting guard options outside of Harden, he makes for a decent punt play on a night without much obvious value. Do keep an eye on the status of this game as there is a ton of snow in Portland and some chance of cancellation.
Andrew Wiggins $6,400 — Zach Lavine is listed as doubtful for tonight and I’m operating under the assumption that he won’t be playing. When Wiggins and Lavine share the court, Wiggins has a 25% usage rate. When Wiggins is on and Lavine is off, that rate jumps to 36%. Even when Wiggins shares the court with Towns, and Lavine is off, Wiggins’ usage rate is still an astounding 34%. The man is truly a black hole on the offensive end, and though there is always the risk of a 3-20 night with 2 assists, the opportunity will be there for Wiggins to have a dominant scoring night. At 6400, that’s a worthwhile gamble.
Kristaps Porzingis $7,500 — I’m comfortable predicting a bounce-back game for Porzingis after a dismal 18.5 fantasy points in 24 minutes against New Orleans two days ago. The Knicks should have no problem throwing him out there for 35+ minutes tonight given the relative rest he’s gotten over the past few days. The Sixers are about middle of the pack against power forwards, this game is expected to be close, and Porzingis has very nice 55-60 fpp upside. It’s unlikely that we would see him hit his floor two games in a row, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see him come out and have a monster game in what should be a relatively low-ownership spot.
Karl Anthony-Towns $9,500 — There’s not a whole lot that needs to be said about Towns. He’s an absolute beast, and with a home game against the Rockets that Vegas expects to be within four points, we can feel confident that he will be in the middle of the action in a pace-up game for the Wolves. While Wiggins will see more of the ball-handling duties with Lavine out, we can also expect the pass-first Ricky Rubio to do more playmaking as well, which is good news for Towns. The Rockets also aren’t defensively equipped in the frontcourt to handle a talent such as Towns, and he should have his way with them all night.
Good luck out there tonight! #LetsGetIt