NBA Thoughts 1/10/17

What’s up Vice Squad! After a disastrous 3-game slate last night (which I thankfully did not play), the NBA returns tonight with a juicy 9-game slate and big tournaments all around the industry.

Bulls Question Marks

There is going to be a lot of chatter today surrounding the Chicago Bulls, who will be missing high-usage ball handlers Dwayne Wade and Jimmy Butler and also have recently benched Rajon Rondo. It is certainly a situation that will be critical to success tonight in NBA DFS, but it is one that is difficult to project. It is the first game of the night, so we should get concrete news on the starting lineup, but I would assume the starting five will be:

Michael Carter-Williams — Doug McDermott — Nikola Mirotic — Taj GIbson — Robin Lopez

Most of those guys are very cheap and if the starters perform well I think we could see three or 4 or perhaps even all 5 guys reach value. But they will certainly be overmatched traveling on a road back-to-back playing against a far more talented Wizards team. A blowout is certainly in play here, and Coach Fred Hoiberg showed he would pull his guys early in last night’s blow out loss. If I’m rostering Chicago Bulls starters, I want at least 2 on my team, and possibly 3. This unit needs to play well together for any of them to stay on the court. They are going to need relatively strong play from MCW (who is really their only creator in this lineup) to keep pace with the Wizards, so my favorite pairings mostly include MCW and then one or two other Bulls. I also think fading this situation all together on some GPP lineups is a viable strategy.

The Sure Things

In the game of the night the Toronto Raptors will host the Boston Celtics in the battle for the Eastern Conference’s #2 seed. This game is made more appealing on both sides of the ball by the absence of lock-down wing defender Avery Bradley who also carries a fairly high usage rate and rebounding rate for the Celtics. His absence benefits, to various extents: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, Jae Crowder, and Al Horford. This game features a 219.5 total with the Raptors favored by 4.5. Neither of these teams played yesterday, and the Raptors are off until Friday, while the Celtics do play again tomorrow. While I do have interest in the Celtics players, it is the Raptors side of the ball, namely Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, that I am especially interested in. Both players see heavy minutes already, and with the importance of this game and with rest on both sides of the game, expect both guys to play right around 40 minutes in what should be a high scoring, competitive affair. At their price points on DraftKings of $8,200 and $8,300, respectively, neither guy is likely to hurt you even in a slightly down performance, while both have the upside to be near must plays. That’s a spot we want to invest in.

Also look toward the Blazers-Lakers game in Los Angeles for high upside plays. While most of the plays in this game is priced up a bit, all of the usual suspects (Lillard, McCollum, Plumlee, Deangelo, and Randle) have a chance to completely crush their value threshold.

Tune into the Deeper Dive with myself, Loughy, and Manny for more analysis as we get more news leading to lock. Good luck tonight and #LetsGetIt!