NBA Lineup Construction 12/5/16
Another week in the books! I hope NFL treated many of you well and got your mind off NBA for a day or two. Tonight we get back into NBA with an 11-game slate featuring multiple top-tier options as well as some value options we haven’t really used this season. As I always do, I’ll let you guys know how I’m building my lineups tonight to help me reach HUMONGOUS scores. Let’s dig in!
As always, I try to determine where the opportunity cost is at its highest levels so I can make the right lineup construction decisions. I feel the mid-tier is pretty strong across the board so I find myself not using Westbrook or Harden as much as I would like to. I’ll quickly run down each position to show you what I mean.
PG – We obviously want Westbrook as he seems like a lock for a triple-double every game, but with a huge discount for John Wall in arguably the best matchup for Guards, we can get pretty close to Westbrook’s production for almost $4k less. We also have Jrue Holiday who’s almost half the price of Westbrook and now is a starter with full minutes. There are some viable options at this position at cheaper price points.
SG – This is another spot where we’d love to roster James Harden as he is another walking triple-double, but we can also save here and get close to his production. DeMar DeRozan who has been part of blowouts the last three games will now get four quarters against Cleveland who, believe it or not, is in the top-tier when it comes to PACE. On some sites we’re saving $4k from Harden and we could see the vintage DeRozan game where he plays 38 minutes and has 50 fantasy points. I’ll also write about Barton in the next section.
SF – Lebron isn’t really in the best matchup when you factor that it’s in Toronto against Carroll who’s a pretty good defender. He’s also priced near the highest he’s been all year. We can get a similar player in Kawhi Leonard who’s in a much better matchup, a paced up spot, and a closely projected game so we should get four quarters from him. Need to save even more? We’ve seen Will Barton return to his regular roll and see full allotment of minutes. We know he’s capable of 35-40 fantasy points and at half the price of Lebron, and $3k less than Kawhi, Barton is a great mid-tier option tonight.
PF – Anthony Davis is on a back-to-back and will have arguably the worst matchup in the league. Facing Memphis’ slow pace and Marc Gasol in the interior, Davis should one of his tougher games. Guys like Draymond at a discount from Davis could get you pretty darn close to his production. If Millsap is back, he’s at his lowest price of the season since he hasn’t played in a few games. Even cheaper options like Markieff Morris who’s been seeing 36-38 minutes in one of the best matchups in the league is definitely in play.
C – With no real top options at the position, we can save and go to the strong mid-tier once again. With Mahinmi out, Gortat is seeing 35+ minutes regularly in another amazing matchup. He’s pretty much locked for a double-double with upside for more. If you have a little more to spend, Joel Embiid makes another fine option as his minutes have been raised recently and looks like one of the best Centers in the league.
The Balanced Approach
Many time I express the upside ‘stars and scrubs’ brings to tournaments, but tonight that seems out of play. The top-tier options are not in the greatest spots, and the mid-tier seems really underpriced. As DFS players we need to adjust to every slate and create lineups accordingly. Tonight also features a lack of value which you are dying to have in your lineups. Many of the players I listed above not only have a solid floor, but because of their pricing, have the ability to greatly exceed their salary and give you access to 350+ scores. With so much room for error on a big slate, I love going balanced when the slate is this big as I not only have a solid floor but I have tons of upside as well.
Feel free to message me on Twitter (@MLora) or in the premium slack chat. I will confirm all these plays on the ‘Deeper Dive’ later today and notify you guys of any changes I see if any. Hope to see you guys atop the leaderboards and with some nice screenshots tonight. Till next time, party animals!