NBA Bargains – 4/8/17
Happy Saturday all! We tip off the last Saturday of the regular season with a five-game slate. There are several teams to keep an eye on such as the Warriors and Spurs, as they could rest players which will open up some value. Stephen Curry is listed as doubtful for tonight, which is something to keep an eye on. When he is off the court, Kevin Durant sees the highest bump in usage, followed by Patrick McCaw and Klay Thompson. Ian Clark sees the biggest +/- differential boost. Let’s waste no more time and jump right into some of tonight’s bargain plays.
Tyler Johnson– MIA at WAS – $5,000 (DK), $5,500 (FD), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – The Heat are still fighting for a spot in the playoffs, so winning is a must. This means the Johnson should see big minutes in this game. He has displayed his ability to score, accumulate steals, and grab boards. He gets a matchup against Washington who are top 10 in turnovers per game and give up 22.2 points with 5.2 rebounds per game to opposing guards. Over their last 10 games, they are yielding 1.04 fantasy points per minute to the position, while giving up 28.7 points per game. During that stretch, they are ranked 28th in defense rating. The Heat must win tonight, so I expect Johnson to come out and play his A-game.
T.J. McConnell – PHI vs. MIL – $6,000 (DK), $5,700 (FD), $11,900 (FDRAFT) – If you are looking for upside, McConnell is not the way to go. However, he has been pretty consistent and continues to play significant minutes. Over his last six games, he has averaged 33.7 minutes, 9.5 points, 8.5 assists, 3.7 rebounds, 2.0 steals, and roughly 30 fantasy points per game. In his last 10 games, he has exceeded value 70 percent of the time by an average of 3.58 points. He gets a matchup against the Bucks that are allowing 1.16 fantasy points per minute to opposing point guards and the fifth most fantasy points per game in their last 10 games. For the season, Milwaukee also ranks 19th in defense rating.
Josh Richardson – MIA at WAS – $5,700 (DK), $4,900 (FD), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – Although the price on DK and Fantasy Draft is getting up there for Richardson, he is still too cheap on FanDuel. He comes into tonight’s game averaging 34.8 minutes, 11.9 points, 3.2 assists, 2.4 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 1.5 blocks, and 1.9 three-pointers per game in his last 10. During that stretch, he has exceeded value 80 percent of the time by an average of 2.35 points. The Wizards are ranked 28th in defense rating over their last 10 games and have allowed over 45 fantasy points per game to the position during that span. Given the minutes he is playing and the matchup, Richardson should have no problem paying off his FanDuel salary.
Evan Turner – POR vs. UTA – $3,900 (DK), $4,100 (FD), $7,000 (FDRAFT) – Turner draws a tough matchup tonight, but is too cheap considering his recent play. Over his last four games, he is averaging 26.3 minutes, 10 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. He has exceeded value in each of those games, including a 20 fantasy point game against this Jazz team. At this price it will not take much to pay off his salary and he provides some cushion for those trying to fit in a high-priced player tonight.
Justin Anderson – PHI vs. MIL – $4,700 (DK), $4,200 (FD), $9,200 (FDRAFT) – Anderson has started for the Sixers in recent games and has played 30+ minutes in three of his last four contests. The Sixers have announced the Dario Saric will be on minute restrictions which should open up the door for someone like Anderson to see a boost in run. He is sub $5,000 on all sites and has displayed 30+ fantasy point upside, making him an enticing option.
Al-Farouq Aminu – POR vs. UTA – $5,400 (DK), $5,400 (FD), $10,600 (FDRAFT) – Aminu has turned it around since mid-March where he was struggling, averaging 30.1 minutes, 12. 8 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.6 three-pointers per game over his last nine games. This is not an ideal matchup for him, but with Portland playing for the final seed in the Western Conference, Aminu should see plenty of run. He averages 0.81 fantasy points per minute for the season, but has 0.98 fantasy points per minute over his last six games.
Richaun Holmes – PHI vs. MIL- $6,000 (DK), $6,100 (FD), $11,900 (FDRAFT) – Holmes continues to play 30+ minutes for the Sixers and is averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute over his last five games. He faces off against the Bucks who are giving up 1.01 fantasy points per minute to opposing bigs. With Dario Saric on minutes restriction for tonight’s game, Holmes has a chance be more productive, as he sees a near one percent bump in usage with Saric off the court. He is only PF eligible FD and C on DK, which is worth noting. He can be played in all formats tonight as he provides a nice floor to go along with some upside.
Marcin Gortat – WAS vs. MIA – $4,200 (DK), $4,700 (FD), $8,300 (FDRAFT) – Gortat has seen his minutes cut significantly since Ian Mahinmi returned, averaging 24.3 minutes per game since the All-Star break versus the 31.4 minutes he is averaging this season. That being said, he has played at least 25 minutes in three of his last four games and gets a decent matchup. Despite having one of the premier shot blockers in the game, the Heat have allowed +1.86 points above expectations to opposing centers. They are also yielding 20.3 points and 24.9 rebounds to the position, while giving up 0.99 fantasy points per minutes. Gortat is just too cheap on all sites and could smash value if he plays upwards of 25 minutes.
Good luck all – Armando
If you have any questions, you can always reach out to me via Twitter @Armando_marsal or in the Fanvice.com premium slack chat. Also, don’t forget to tune into The Final Countdown on FanVice Live for all the last minute news and analysis.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.