NBA Bargains – 4/7/17
Happy Friday! Let us look at the games from this restful nine-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Tyler Ennis – LAL vs. SAC – $3,800 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,900 (FDRAFT) – FanDuel only here as DK/FDRAFT have discovered that, with D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson nursing injuries and the Lakers not interested in the win column late in the season, Ennis may see 40 minutes tonight. On FanDuel, at $3,800, and a matchup against the 12th worst pace adjusted defense over the last seven game in Sacramento, he will not need much to make value over there.
Shelvin Mack – UTA vs. MIN – $3,600 (FD), $4,000 (DK), $7,800 (FDRAFT) – Mack should see 26-30 minutes as the Jazz finish out the regular season trying to get George Hill (doubtful) and the other questionable backcourt players healthy for the playoffs. Mack has 25.4, 21.6 and 24.7% raw usage rates over the last three games and now gets a significantly better matchup in Minnesota, who is the fourth worst pace adjusted defense over the past seven games.
Jamal Murray – DEN vs. NOP – $4,300 (FD – PG), $4,500 (FD), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Murray should see the majority of the time in the backcourt with Jameer Nelson doubtful and Will Barton still questionable and the Nuggets fighting for the last playoff spot, now a game and a half behind Portland for the eighth spot in the West. Two games ago Murray played 33 minutes, had 22.1% usage and scored 31.25 DK points in this same matchup against the Pelicans.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – DET at HOU – $4,300 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – KCP played less minutes his last game out because he was witnessing the birth of his child, so do not be distressed. The Pistons still have a mathematical shot at the playoffs and a tremendous matchup here against the Rockets, who are the fifth worst pace adjusted defense over the last seven games. In KCP’s last tilt against the Rockets, he scored 30.20 FanDuel points, where is the best value tonight at $4,300.
Taurean Prince – ATL at CLE – $4,200 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – Prince went off against the Celtics for 20 real points Thursday night in a must win for the Hawks. Tonight, the Hawks will scale back and prepare for the second game of this home and home with the Cavs, resting Paul Millsap and, probably, Thabo Sefolosha for the game in Atlanta, leaving the rookie Prince for 30 minutes or so. He is a hustle play, so there is variance in his result, but he should be plenty active given the circumstances tonight in Cleveland.
Kyle Anderson – SAS at DAL – $3,600 (FD), $3,600 (DK), $7,000 (FDRAFT) – Anderson is low usage, so there is a tourney ceiling to him, but in cash games he will be a popular play, as he is near min priced, can fill up a stat sheet to provide fantasy value and will certainly get minutes with most of the Spurs resting in this game against the Mavericks. Anderson scored 23.75 and 29.50 DK points in his last two extended runs this past week, one against the Jazz and the other against the Lakers.
Davis Bertans – SAS at DAL – $3,500 (FD – SF), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – One of the players that Kyle Anderson will facilitate is Bertans, who should be closer to 20% usage rate tonight with the massive rest day in which the Spurs are engaging tonight. Bertans in min priced and should see 25-30 minutes here, which will provide even tourney value here.
Marquese Chriss – PHX vs. OKC – $5,400 (FD), $5,800 (DK), $11,600 (FDRAFT) – Phoenix has a solid matchup against the Thunder tonight in a low-stress matchup here. Chriss has scored 31.50, 42.75, 24.50 and 30.75 DK points over the last four games and will be pressed to do the same tonight.
Dewayne Dedmon – SAS at DAL – $3,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – With everyone, including Pau Gasol, sitting for the Spurs, and David Lee never getting a significant amount of minutes, the burden of grinding out the center position should fall on Dedmon, who is the rock bottom minimum on all sites.
Enes Kanter – OKC at PHX – $5,500 (FD – PF), $4,400 (DK), $8,700 (FDRAFT) – I hold out the hope that Billy Donovan will see fit to extend Kanter’s mintues here in the waning days of the regular season, where his defensive deficiencies will not be held against him. Kanter is an offensive force, and given even 25 minutes against the porous defense of the Suns, who are the worst pace adjusted defense over the past seven games, Kanter can crush his DK/FDRAFT value.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.