NBA Bargains – 4/6/17
Happy Thursday all! The regular season is almost over, but we still have plenty of tournaments available and there is money to be won. With some teams out of the playoff picture, they may elect to play some of their younger players to see what they have in their prospects. Then there are teams that are still fighting for a playoff spot, so they will roll their starters out there for all the minutes they can handle. It is very important to be aware of situations like these. With that said, let’s jump right into tonight’s six-game slates and point out some bargain plays to consider.
T.J. McConnell– PHI vs. CHI – $6,000 (DK), $5,600 (FD), $11,900 (FDRAFT) – The price for McConnell is creeping up, but on a site like FanDuel, there is still value to be had. He continues to play big minutes for the Sixers, averaging 32.3 minutes per game over his last six. During that stretch, he has averaged 9.3 points, 8.3 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.7 steals and over 25 fantasy points per game. The Bulls are giving up 1.01 fantasy points per minute to point guards, making this an enticing matchup. Despite the lack of upside, McConnell offers a reasonable floor and makes for a solid option this evening.
Ron Baker – NY vs. WAS – $4,000 (DK), $3,600 (FD), $7,800 (FDRAFT) – Baker is not someone I am overly excited about tonight, but since Derrick Rose has been sidelined, Baker has played big minutes for the Knicks. In his last four games, he has averaged 36 minutes per game, as well as 7.3 points, 4.5 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.3 steals. During that stretch, he has topped 20 fantasy points twice. He is not a high-upside play, but with the amount of minutes he has been playing, he should be able to pay off his salary. After all, the Wizards have allowed 1.23 fantasy points per minute to opposing guards in their last five games.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot – PHI vs. CHI – $5,600 (DK), $5,600 (FD), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – In his last five games, Luwawu-Cabarrot is averaging 36.4 minutes per game and has yet played fewer than 32 minutes in any of those games. During that stretch, he has averaged 16.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, two assists, 1.2 steals, and over 26 fantasy points per game, while sporting a 19.5 percent usage rate. He has attempted 15 shots in three consecutive games and has not attempted fewer than 10 in any of his last five. While his price has increased a decent amount in recent games, his production has been consistent and he has displayed some upside. He should once again receive plenty of run and should be able to exceed value for the sixth consecutive game.
Evan Fournier – ORL vs. BKN – $5,700 (DK), $5,600 (FD), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – Fournier gets a favorable matchup against the Nets who rank 23rd in defense rating and play up in pace. They have allowed +1.49 points above expectations to opposing shooting guards and are yielding the sixth most fantasy points per game to the position. Despite the matchup, Fournier comes at a reasonable price across the board and can be considered in all formats. He offers a nice floor and a ceiling in this contest.
Terrence Ross – ORL vs. BKN – $5,100 (DK), $4,300 (FD), $10,100 (FDRAFT) – Ross can be volatile, but if you consider the matchup, the amount of minutes he is playing, and the economical price across the board, he becomes an interesting option. He faces off against the Nets who are giving up 0.977 fantasy points per minute to opposing small forwards (most in the league) and have allowed +3.6 points above expectations to the position. Ross struggled the last time out against Brooklyn, but should be able to capitalize this time around. He is a tournament only play for me, but one that provides some decent upside.
Thaddeus Young – IND vs. MIL – $4,800 (DK), $4,700 (FD), $9,500 (FDRAFT) – With their playoff hopes on the line, the Pacers need to win tonight’s game. The Bucks on the other hand, are holding on to the fifth seed, but only two games ahead of Indiana. This means that we could see a close contested game and the starters should play big minutes in this one. Young has scored double-digit points in five consecutive games and has two double-doubles in that span. In addition, during that stretch, he is averaging 15.2 points, nine rebounds, 1.4 assists, and nearly 30 fantasy points per game. The Bucks have allowed +1.11 points above expectations to opposing power forwards and are yielding over 40 fantasy points per game to the position. Young offers a ceiling in this matchup and comes at a very low price industry wide.
Richaun Holmes – PHI vs. CHI – $6,000 (DK), $6,100 (FD), $11,900 (FDRAFT) – The price is going up for Holmes, but that goes hand-in-hand with his production as of late. He has topped 30 fantasy points in three of his last four games and in four of his last six. He faces off against the Bulls who have allowed +0.61 points above expectations to the position and are giving up over 45 fantasy points per game. Chicago is also surrendering nearly a rebound more per game to opposing bigs in their last 10, compared to their season average. As he makes a case for a bigger part of the Sixers rotation next season, I expect Holmes to finish the season on a high note, including this matchup.
Robin Lopez – CHI at PHI – $4,900 (DK), $4,700 (FD), $9,700 (FDRAFT) – By now I am almost certain that targeting the Sixers frontcourt has become a thing. No other team is giving up more fantasy points per game to centers in their last 10 than Philadelphia. During that stretch, Centers are averaging 29.7 points and 15.6 rebounds per game, to go along with 1.29 fantasy points per minute. The Sixers have also allowed +4.99 points above expectations to the position. Lastly, they give up 44.9 rebounds per game with a -2.0 differential. Lopez is too cheap considering the situation and can be deployed in all formats tonight.
Good luck all – Armando
If you have any questions, you can always reach out to me via Twitter @Armando_marsal or in the Fanvice.com premium slack chat. Also, don’t forget to tune into The Final Countdown on FanVice Live for all the last minute news and analysis.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.