NBA Bargains 4/4/17
Happy Tuesday! Let us look at the games from the 11-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Yogi Ferrell – DAL at SAC – $4,500 (FD), $4,400 (DK), $8,700 (FDRAFT) – JJ Barea and Seth Curry are both questionable, and the Mavericks have been officially eliminated. Ferrell could see 32-35 minutes here at a 20+% raw usage rate, put a value filled effort in range here in a solid matchup against the Kings, who are the 10th worst pace adjusted defense over the past seven games.
Matthew Dellavedova – MIL at OKC – $3,500 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – More of a cash game, lower ceiling play, especially at the min price on FanDuel, Delly Time has received 34 minutes in the last two games because of Malcolm Brogdon’s back injury, scoring 24 FD points in his last effort in a worse matchup against Dallas.
Jamal Murray – DEN at NOR – $3,700 (FD), $4,300 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – Jameer Nelson and Will Barton are out, leaving some good usage available for Murray, who is expected to start for the Nuggets. The Nuggets have been the fifth best pace adjusted offensive rating over the last seven games and the seventh best matchup on this huge slate.
Brandon Rush – MIN at GSW – $3,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – Rush got 37 minutes against the Blazers and Minnesota won – that may be all the correlation Thibs needs to run Rush back out there in a pseudo-revenge game for Rush, back in Oakland again. Rush is the rock bottom minimum everywhere, so if he gets the start, get him out there.
Jordan Crawford – NOP vs. DEN – $3,700 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – FanDuel only, as his DK price has exceeded his 25 fantasy point consistency off the bench. Denver provides the third best matchup on the slate in terms of pace adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, and Crawford has been enjoying a usual 23-25 minutes, mid 20s raw usage rate. The Pelicans are alive only mathematically, playoff-wise, so there will be less desire to expose the starts to extended minutes as the Pelicans season wears to the end.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – CHA at WAS – $4,600 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,700 (FDRAFT) – MKG will be in a high-tempo game that will serve his peripherals game well, list the last two games in similar matchups, scoring 32.25 and 28 DK points in 63 total minutes. The Hornets need to win to stay in the playoff race in the East so they will be highly motivated to keep the core rotation on the floor.
Jonathon Simmons – SAS vs. MEM – $3,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – Danny Green is out, so it could very well be Simmons who is called on, again, to play 30+ minutes in Green’s stead. Last time out, Simmons scored 23.25 DK points against Utah, and has a similar matchup here against Memphis. Check the lineups and let it rip if he is the starter.
Trevor Booker – BKN at PHI – $4,800 (FD), $4,100 (DK), $8,000 (FDRAFT) – Booker has seen an uptick in importance in the past two games, scoring 36.50 and 23.25 DK points in the last two games. Like all Nets not named Brook Lopez, Booker will not play more than 23-25 minutes, but in this matchup, he has the cash game play to make a value number here.
Al-Farouq Aminu – POR at UTA – $4,800 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – Aminu erupted in the absence of Jusuf Nurkic against Minnesota, scoring 44.25 DK points in 35 minutes. On DK, because of the tougher matchup against Utah, his price is lower, but his role should remain the same.
Cody Zeller – CHA at WAS – $4,900 (FD), $4,700 (DK), $9,200 (FDRAFT) – Zeller has a great matchup here and his price is still below 5K despite his ability to hit 30 fantasy points in a positive matchup, like his 30+ fantasy point game against Denver. Like the Nuggets, the Wizards are in the bottom ten in pace adjusted defensive rating and the Hornets are highly motivated in this game.
Robin Lopez – CHI at NYK – $4,700 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – After two difficult center matchups against New Orleans and Atlanta, Lopez gets a considerably easier one here against New York. It is a matchup more similar to his recent games against Cleveland (30.25 DK points) and Milwaukee (29.25 DK points). The Bulls have won four games in a row and Lopez has played 28, 35, 36 and 26 minutes in those games.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.