NBA Bargains 4/1/17
Happy Saturday all! The NBA season is winding down as baseball approaches, but there is still some time to beef up our bankrolls for this long baseball season. We have a small four-game main slate tonight and some nice projected totals. Although it is the lowest over/under of the slate, the Hawks and Bulls both have something to play for tonight and this game is expected to stay close. Then we have the Magic and Nets game with a 221.5 over/under and just a three-point spread. Lastly, Minnesota and Portland both are favored in their games by over 10 points, so there is blowout potential, but on a short slate like this one, we sort of have to throw that out the window. Let’s waste no more time and jump right into it.
Kris Dunn– MIN vs. SAC – $4,500 (DK), $4,300 (FD), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Dunn has seen extra run in recent games and that should continue for the remainder of the season. Over his last five contests, he has averaged 28.8 minutes, 8.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 2.8 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. In his last game, he scored just two real points, but managed to score over 20 fantasy points. This is a really good matchup for Dunn, as the Kings are a mess, ranking 27th in defense rating over their last 10 games. He has been closing games out and even if this game blows out, he should see plenty of run as the team is looking at what they have in their potential future point guard.
Darren Collison – SAC at MIN – $5,000 (DK), $5,700 (FD), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – The Kings are expected to lose by a wide margin tonight and that can be concerning, but in the last three blowouts, Collison has played 27, 22, 27 minutes. He holds a 23.1 percent usage rate over his last five games, which is a nice jump from his 19.9 season rate. In addition, the T-Wolves rank 29th in defense rating over their last 10 games, making this this an appealing matchup. There is certainly risk with Collison, but he has been efficient as of late and should be able to do enough to pay off his salary, while also providing some upside at this price.
Evan Fournier – ORL vs. BKN – $5,600 (DK), $5,600 (FD), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – Fournier has scored at least 20 real points in three consecutive games and has a good chance to make it a fourth in this matchup. He faces off against the Nets who are yielding the fourth most fantasy points per game to shooting guards and have allowed +1.56 points above expectations to the position. They are also ranked 27th in defense rating and play at a very fast pace. Fournier possesses 40+ fantasy point upside and offers a nice floor, yet remains very reasonably priced across the board, making him a very enticing option tonight. This game projects to be high-scoring and close.
Buddy Hield – SAC at MIN – $5,400 (DK), $5,400 (FD), $10,600 (FDRAFT) – The Kings have rested players in recent games, but continue to give Hield plenty of run. He has averaged 30.3 minutes per game in his last 12 and has not sat a game yet. He should once again see plenty of minutes tonight, in a decent matchup. Minnesota is giving up the most fantasy points per game to shooting guards in their last five, while ranked 27th in defense rating during that stretch. For those concerned about the spread, in recent blowouts, Hield has played fewer than 30 minutes just once.
Terrence Ross – ORL vs. BKN – $5,100 (DK), $4,400 (FD), $10,100 (FDRAFT) – Ross will likely be a popular tournament play tonight and rightfully so. He has topped 27 DK points in six consecutive games and gets a very good matchup. The Nets have allowed +3.84 points above expectations to opposing small forwards and are giving up the most fantasy points per game to the position. Ross continues to play big minutes for the Magic, averaging 31.7 minutes per game in the month of March. He offers 7X upside in this matchup and should have no trouble paying off his salary.
Al-Farouq Aminu – POR vs. PHO – $4,900 (DK), $4,800 (FD), $9,700 (FDRAFT) – After struggling for a nice stretch in March, Aminu has posted three consecutive solid performances. His struggles came on the road and in subpar matchups, but in his recent favorable matchups, he has excelled and he gets a nice matchup once again tonight. The Suns rank 27th in defense rating this season and have played at the second highest pace. They have allowed an average of +1.53 points above expectations to opposing power forwards and yield the fourth most fantasy points per game to the position, while surrendering the second most over their last 10 games. Going back to last season, Aminu has scored over 26 DK points in all but on game against the Suns. The only game he scored fewer than that was on November 4th where he played just four minutes. This is a matchup he exploits regularly and at this price, he should easily pay off his salary.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – BKN at ORL – $5,600 (DK), $5,000 (FD), $11,100 (FDRAFT) – Hollis-Jefferson continues to be very efficient for the Nets in recent games despite averaging just 23.2 minutes per game over his last five. During that stretch, however, he holds a 26.1 usage rate and is averaging an impressive 1.39 fantasy points per minute. He has topped 30 DK points in all but one of those contests and has yet scored below 28 fantasy points. The matchup is one that favors him as the Magic are giving up a smidge over a fantasy points per minute to the position in their last 10. His price has increased a decent amount, but that goes hand-in-hand with his production. Due to the volatile minutes, he is a tournament only play for me. It is worth noting that on FD he is SF eligible only.
Meyers Leonard – POR vs. PHO – $3,000 (DK), $3,500 (FD), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – Leonard is expected to get the start tonight for the injured Jusuf Nurkic and is the absolute minimum price across the board. He has yet to play over 29 minutes this season, but in games that he has played at least 20 minutes in, he has averaged 9.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.3 steals, and 0.5 blocks. Those are not eye-popping numbers, but that should be enough to pay off the low salary. He is not necessary to roster tonight because lineup construction does not call for it, but if you want to fit in multiple stars, he makes it easier to do so. The matchup is also one that favors him as the Suns rank 27th in defense rating.
Alex Len – PHO at POR – $4,200 (DK), $4,500 (FD), $8,300 (FDRAFT) – Len only played 18 minutes last game, but that was the lowest he had played since March 15th. He should go back to playing minutes in the mid 20’s today and gets a nice matchup. Portland will be without Jusuf Nurkic tonight which leaves a big void in their frontcourt. Len should be able to exploit this defense tonight and have his way in the paint. He has averaged 1.3 fantasy points per minute against the Trail Blazers this season. The volatile minutes makes him a tournament play only for me, but he does provide a nice ceiling in this matchup. He is very economical across the industry and is a favorable situation.
Good luck all – Armando
If you have any questions, you can always reach out to me via Twitter @Armando_marsal or in the Fanvice.com premium slack chat. Also, don’t forget to tune into The Final Countdown on FanVice Live for all the last minute news and analysis.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.