NBA Bargains – 3/8/17
Happy Wednesday! Let us look at the games from this loosen-your-belt- 11-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on FantasyDraft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice articles/shows for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Cameron Payne – CHI at ORL – $3,600 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – We do not have a lot of sample size when it comes to Fred Hoiberg’s whim on how to use Payne when some key rotational pieces are out (Wade – doubtful, Rondo – questionable). However, the one game we do have, the last game at Detroit, Payne played 22 minutes with Rondo active, had 32% raw usage and scored 23.75 DK points. Even if he is in time share with Jerian Grant and Michael Carter-Williams in absorbing the missing minutes from Wade/Rondo, his usage history (including OKC) says that 24 minutes will yield volume.
Jeremy Lin – BKN at ATL – $5,200 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Lin is pretty much capped at 23-25 minutes, so he needs to score in bunches, which is nice, because that is what teams do to the backcourt of Atlanta, score in bunches. Lin is getting 1.18 DK points per minute (DKPPM) this season and the Hawks will boost that tonight with a 219.5 game total.
Rodney Hood – UTA at HOU – $4,200 (FD), $4,700 (DK), $9,200 (FDRAFT) – Hood’s mid 20s usage, George Hill and Joe Johnson questionable for tonight, the huge bump in pace and positive positional matchup all favor a low priced Hood tonight. The only caveat are the potential minutes Hood might be limited to as his knee is sore, but it is an island game for the Jazz tonight.
Jeremy Lamb – CHA at MIA – $3,900 (FD), $3,400 (DK), $6,700 (FDRAFT) – High usage bench gunner who has seen 21 and 24 minutes the last two games. He is a low 20s usage rate guy, scores a DKPPM and leads the Hornets in defensive rebounding percentage! With the glut of wings on the Heat, the Hornets may need Lamb more in this game as he played 23 minutes and scored 22 DK points against the Heat the last time they played.
Kent Bazemore – ATL vs. BKN – $4,500 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – The Nets are the second worst defensive team in the league and fourth fastest over the last seven games, leaving the Hawks in a nice bounce back spot here, along with the 27-29 minutes that Kent Bazemore will give them.
Bojan Bogdanovic – WAS at PHX – $4,000 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,900 (FDRAFT) – Huge night last night for Bogdanovic, our cover boy in this space yesterday, as he continued his offensive expression by scoring 29 real points in 29 minutes, including an unrepeatable 16-16 from the free throw line. Hope you had him. Tonight, he travels into Denver, a tough back to back, put the total is high, he will be open and his price is still way too low on FanDuel. 10x is not in play here, but 4x + 10 seems assured.
Trevor Booker – BKN at ATL – $5,200 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – Teams are packing the lane against the Hawks and daring the Hawks to win from the outside. To effectively do that against Dennis Schröder, Paul Millsap and Dwight Howard, the Nets will need to stay big throughout the game, and that means a solid rotation for Booker, who got 25 minutes in a similar rotational matchup against Memphis last game.
Marvin Williams – CHA at MIA – $5,200 (FD), $5,400 (DK), $10,600 (FDRAFT) – Lock in the minutes (39 and 38 last two games) in cash games with Marvin, who will see 35-37 minutes with Frank Kaminsky and Miles Plumlee out tonight. He scored 48 FD points in 53 minutes in two meetings against the Heat this season, so a minutes bump to 35 would stake him in the 29-31 range, which is great cash value for his $5,200 number on FanDuel.
Bismack Biyombo – ORL vs. CHI – $4,600 (FD), $5,500 (DK), $10,900 (FDRAFT) – Huge jump in price on Biyombo, who scored 38.75 and 30.50 DK points his last two games in relief of Nikola Vucevic. Vuc is out against tonight, so it is Back to the Mack, but especially on FanDuel, where his price is up but still well within the tourney value threshold (and cash too, obv) for tonight.
Robin Lopez – CHI at ORL – $4,800 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – Lopez has been way more engaged lately, with over 24% raw usage in each of the last five games. His shot totals have been 10, 14, 15, 14 and 17 and scored 28.50 DK point his last game out.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.