NBA Bargains – 3/7/17
Happy Tuesday! Let us look at the games from this three-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on FantasyDraft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice articles/shows for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Yogi Ferrell – DAL vs. LAL – $5,100 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Ferrell gets the minutes, which is a huge leg up in the Bargains bin on this short slate. Ferrell has not been below 28 minutes in his last six games and has maintained a solid 18% raw usage and assist rate (29.2%) as well. Against the Lakers, who have the third highest turnover rate over the last five games and the third highest pace as well, Ferrell could scoop some extra peripherals as well.
Jordan Clarkson – LAL at DAL – $5,100 (FD), $5,200 (DK), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – Like Ferrell, and to the same extent Phoenix’s Tyler Ulis, Clarkson is priced appropriately, but on this three-game slate, his minutes (28.8 over last seven games) and raw usage (26.5% over that same span) give him a more clear path to 30-35 fantasy points here, though tempered by the significantly slower pace of the Mavericks.
Nick Young – LAL at DAL – $4,200 (FD), $4,000 (DK), $7,800 (FDRAFT) – Not a sexy pick here, but he will start, play at least 24 minutes and if he gets loose early with some threes, can realize value quickly on DK/FDRAFT. It is a huge pace down game for the Lakers and Walton may choose to go with Clarkson down the stretch, but getting that first shift in with Nick is a plus on this slate and his raw usage has gone up in the last five games without Louis Williams (20.2% compared to 18%).
Leandro Barbosa – PHX vs. WAS – $3,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – High usage bench gunner who in the last five games has seen 18 minutes per game and massive 26.1% raw usage rate. This has only translated to a 0.80 fantasy point per minute rate, but against the Wizards, in the night’s highest total and tight spread, he gets a bump that could nudge him towards 20-22 fantasy points on the night.
Brandon Ingram – LAL at DAL – $3,700 (FD), $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FDRAFT) – FanDuel play only here, as he is nearly a full thousand less expensive there, Ingram has minutes and activity on his side, if not the raw usage you would hope for given the team-leading 36 minutes per game he has received. He will be a hugely popular option, so fade if you desire, but there is only one or two more guys down here at this position whose minutes are more secure than Ingram’s.
Bojan Bogdanovic – WAS at PHX – $4,000 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,700 (FDRAFT) – Obviously, more inclined to use on FanDuel, where he is only 4K, Bogdanovic has really begun to express himself offensively in the last four games with his new team. Bojan has played 24 minutes per game and is third on the team in raw usage over that span with 22.3% raw usage. This has resulted, even on the non-bonus site FanDuel, in games of 19.4, 27.4 and 29.90 FD points. It is a pace up game for Bojan and the individual matchup is positive.
Taj Gibson – OKC vs. POR – $4,200 (FD), $3,900 (DK), $7,700 (FDRAFT) – Gibson will be a popular play tonight for those looking for value at this position due to name recognition, price and the 33 DK point game he just posted on the Blazers three games ago, with 32 minutes off the bench. There is danger that Billy Donovan would not use Gibson the same way here, especially since Steven Adams was in foul trouble in that game and only played 23 minutes. But at his price and fantasy points per minute (0.89), he is worth a look here if going low at PF.
Marquese Chriss – PHX vs. WAS – $4,500 (FD), $4,700 (DK), $9,200 (FDRAFT) – He starts and has a very positive matchup against the Wizards in the night’s highest total. That is the good news on Chriss. The bad news is that, since he starts, he is in line behind Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker and T.J. Warren in terms of possession usage. He is not a significant rebounder either, with only an 11% defensive rebounding number. He did play 30.7 minutes against Boston, and is typically in for the fourth quarter, but it is at the whim of Earl Watson, as is everyone not names Bledsoe and Booker, in terms of closing the game.
Alan Williams – PHX vs. WAS – $5,500 (FD), $6,700 (DK), $12,600 (FDRAFT) – Obviously a FanDuel play, Williams has averaged 28.2 minutes, 21.1% raw usage and a team leading 30.5% defensive rebounding mark, making him a double-double threat, even off the bench. It is a positive individual matchup as well for Williams, putting him around a 32-35 fantasy point projection, a solid value on FanDuel.
Tarik Black – LAL at DAL – $3,500 (FD), $3,100 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – Larry Nance, Jr. and Ivica Zubac are both questionable in this game, meaning that Black may be asked to work more than his typical 16 minutes per game over the last five games. He will start, but the Lakers often finish smaller. That might not be an option here against the bigger Mavericks, who will have Dirk Nowitzki out there for at least 30 minutes. Given more possessions per minute against the Lakers, Black’s 0.92 fantasy points per minute, and double-double capabilities if he gets to even 20 minutes, Black is an interesting min price punt.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.