NBA Bargains – 3/6/17
Happy Monday! Let us look at the games from this mega 12-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice articles/shows for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Reggie Jackson – DET vs. CHI – $5,000 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Jackson has been losing time to Ish Smith, but typically will stay in the game longer if the PG is not a scoring threat, which Rajon Rondo/Jerian Grant should not be tonight. Jackson still rocks mid 20s raw usage (24.9, 24.0, 29.3 last three games) and will benefit from playing against Rondo (if he plays, Q) and his high turnover ways.
Ty Lawson – SAC at DEN – $4,600 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – Minutes played, last three games: 35, 32, 37. DK scores over those games: 28.25, 30.75 and 30.50. He has an up-tempo game against a defense that is bottom ten over the last five games and he is getting consistent minutes and between 21-22% raw usage.
Rodney Hood – UTA vs. NOP – $4,200 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – No DFS sensation quite like being burned by rostering Rodney Hood. I would never suggest him in a single lineup, but at the right price, he is worthy of GPP consideration based on his mid 20% raw usage (24.7, 26.4 last two games played). At his current price, this is such a time, though he will be chalky coming off a 35.80 FD point night last night. Beware the potential rest scratch here and fading is an acceptable strategy based on his burn factor, but at this price and his current role/usage, he must be listed here.
Jeremy Lamb – CHA vs. IND – $3,800 (FD), $3,400 (DK), $6,700 (FDRAFT) – High usage bench gunner who should get 21-23 minutes of playing time tonight and scores a DK point per minute while out there, he makes for an interesting punt as the Hornets return from a long road trip.
Terrence Ross – ORL vs. NYK – $4,500 (FD), $5,700 (DK), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – FanDuel play only here, as Ross is only $4,500, as he was last night when he manifested a 32.30 FD point performance in the absence of Nikola Vucevic (questionable again tonight). Ross minutes over the last five games: 32, 35, 36, 35, 32. He is rock solid in the rotation right now and the individual matchup against the Knicks is a plus for him as well.
Trevor Ariza – HOU at SAS – $5,000 (FD), $4,300 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – This is where you can take advantage of the dynamic pricing algos out there on sites. Ariza, according to the sites that have dropped his price so low like DK/FDRAFT, is slated to be matched up with Kawhi Leonard…on paper. However, in reality, we know that Leonard will not cover Ariza, just like in the three games this season that Houston has already played San Antonio. In those games, Ariza has scored 36, 30.50 and 26.75 DK points against the Spurs. He is worth the price punt in the highest scoring total of the night and the Rockets firing away against everybody.
Willie Cauley-Stein – SAC at DEN – $4,900 (FD), $5,100 (DK-C), $10,200 (FDRAFT)– WCS is in a tremendous spot here after playing 39 minutes and scoring 36.30 FD points against Utah last night. Denver, as stated before, is a bottom ten defense and is a significant pace up game for the Kings. Given the size of the Nuggets frontcourt, it is unlikely that the Kings go real small, the only real factor in a potential bust situation for the active Cauley-Stein.
Channing Frye – CLE vs. MIA – $4,600 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Should be back in the lineup, with LeBron, as the Cavs will be nine point favorites at home against the Heat, with a 215.5 total at their back. Frye just torched the Heat for 32.50 DK points in 22 minutes Saturday night.
Bismack Biyombo – ORL vs. NYK – $3,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – With Vucevic out yesterday, The Return of the Mack played 34.22 minutes at min salary and C-RUSHED, scoring 35.50 FD points and 38.75 DK points. If Vuc misses again, there is very, very little reason to fade Biyombo against the Knicks with a similar minutes forecast.
Clint Capela – HOU at SAS – $5,100 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,600 (FDRAFT) – This season, Capela has scored 49.75 DK points in 41 minutes against the Spurs. With his role increasing as late (25 and 28 minutes against Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan), he has room to make value here, even against the Spurs in what is the highest total of the night.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.