NBA Bargains 3/31/17
Happy Friday! Let us look at the games from the mondo 11-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Shelvin Mack – UTA vs. WAS – $3,600 (FD), $3,900 (DK), $7,700 (FDRAFT) – No George Hill/Raul Neto again tonight and Dante Exum will not be able to score enough to keep Utah afloat against the Wizards. Mack played 28 minutes of solid PG off the bench against SAC last time out and has the offensive upside to hit value at his current price.
Jameer Nelson – DEN at CHA – $5,000 (FD), $5,100 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – I do not love, love, love this matchup against Kemba Walker, nor the fact that everybody, for the most part, is healthy on the Nuggets, limiting what is needed from Nelson. However, I do love the game matchup here, as both teams are fighting for playoff space and the Nuggets are the third best pace adjusted offense over the last seven games.
Nik Stauskas – PHI at CLE – $3,800 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – With Sergio Rodriguez out again for the Sixers, you can go back to Stauskas, especially on FanDuel where his price did not precipitously rise. The minutes at PG were evident in his seven assists his last game and gets a Cleveland defense that is in a death spiral right now, sixth worst over the last seven games.
Jordan Crawford – NOP at SAC – $3,700 (FD), $4,000 (DK), $7,800 (FDRAFT) – Crawford is back in his mid-high 20s minutes role and his usage has stayed high, in the upper 20s. The matchup against Sacramento is not only good for the two-guard position, but it is the third best on the slate, behind Golden State and Charlotte. The Pelicans have the fifth best pace adjusted offensive rating over the last seven games while the Kings have the eighth worst pace adjusted defense over the same span.
Tyreke Evans – SAC at NOP – $5,200 (FD -SG), $4,300 (DK), $8,500 (FDRAFT – G) – Not on the injury list, so we must assume that Evans will be playing his usual half-game at 30% raw usage, which will be in a return to New Orleans. There is little to stop Evans in terms of usage, in that the Kings are out of it and we saw Evans get 29.2, 30.7, 39.3% raw usage in his last three games over 20 minutes for the Kings. Not in play anywhere but a DK punt, Evans may fire off one last hurrah here in New Orleans.
Timothe Luwawu-Cabbarrot – PHI at CLE – $3,900 (FD – SG), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – TLC has played back to back 30+ minute games with Robert Covington out, scoring 37.25 and 26 DK points in those efforts. Surprisingly, Cleveland is a worse defense than the Hawks/Nets, against whom TLC did his damage.
Brendan Wright – MEM vs. DAL – $3,600 (FD -C), $3,400 (DK), $6,700 (FDRAFT) – JaMychal Green and Marc Gasol are out again, placing Wright in another significant minutes situation. He played 27 minutes in similar place against Indiana and scored 23.50 DK points. The matchup against Dallas is not as good but the opportunity is as a cash game play for low price and solid minutes, but little ceiling in the game.
Amir Johnson – BOS vs. ORL – $4,000 (FD), $4,100 (DK), $8,100 (FDRAFT) – For Amir, the matchup is a good one against the Magic, who have been the 11th worst pace adjusted defensive team over the past seven games. Plus, the Celtics are now in the driver’s seat for the top seed, so they will be making sure they do their best to limit the likes of Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon by leveraging Amir for defense.
Montrezl Harrell – HOU at GSW – $3,900 (FD -PF), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – Nene is doubtful for the game as of this writing and Ryan Anderson is out, leaving some playing time runway for Harrell, who nabs a DK point per minute when he is on the floor. The Rockets are pretty well set with their seeding, so it would not shock to see more Harrell as the regular season wraps up.
Nerlens Noel – DAL at MEM – $5,900(FD), $5,100 (DK), $10,100 (FDRAFT) – Noel went bananas against the Grizzlies when they last played the Mavs, scoring 46.75 DK points in 35 minutes, collecting 17 rebounds. While lightening may not strike again, at this price point we would be thrilled with anything approaching 70% of that stat-line.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.