NBA Bargains 3/30/17
Happy Thursday all! After a 10-game slate last night, we have a five-game slate this evening, but with far more interesting matchups. Unlike last night, where only two games had an over/under above 210 points, all games tonight currently have a 211 or higher implied total, including two matchups with a 220 point over/under. Below I will go over some bargain plays that will help you fit in some of the higher priced players into your lineups. Let’s waste no more time and jump right into it.
Kris Dunn– MIN vs. LAL – $3,900 (DK), $3,900 (FD), $7,700 (FDRAFT) – Dunn has received extra run in recent games, averaging 28.3 minutes per game over his last four. That should not change tonight in a favorable matchup against the Lakers who are ranked dead last in defense rating over their last 10 games and even for the course of the season. Dunn has exceeded 25 fantasy points in three consecutive games and has displayed his ability to accumulate points with peripheral stats, especially with steals. This is good news for him as the Lakers are fifth in the league in turnovers per game. They have also given up 1.25 fantasy points per minute to point guards in their last five and have allowed +1.28 points above expectations to the position. Dunn offers 7-8X upside in this contest and can be considered in all formats at this price.
Ish Smith – DET vs. BKN – $6,100 (DK), $5,300 (FD), $12,000 (FDRAFT) – Reggie Jackson has missed the last two games with a knee injury and is listed as questionable for this contest. In each of those games, Smith has played over 30 minutes. Assuming he misses again, Smith should be in for another efficient outing. Detroit faces the Nets who rank 25th in defense rating and play up in pace. They are also yielding 1.09 fantasy points per minute to point guards and are giving up the second most fantasy points per game, while allowing +2.7 points above expectations to the position. Despite a price increase, there is still value to be had with Smith if he continues to play these minutes. Keep an eye on the news and if Jackson is out, deploy Smith.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – DET vs. BKN – $5,200 (DK), $4,700 (FD), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – KCP comes in at a reasonable price across the industry, but more so on FanDuel. He is as volatile as they come, but offers a nice ceiling in this contest. His bread and butter is three-pointers, which should be easy to come by in this matchup, as the Nets give up 2.6 three-pointer per game to opposing shooting guards. They have also allowed +1.09 points above expectations to the position, while yielding the fourth most fantasy points per game. KCP has topped 29 DK points in each of his two games against Brooklyn this season. He offers 40+ fantasy point upside, however, the floor is also quite low, as single-digit fantasy points is possible. Tournament play only for me.
Jamal Crawford – LAC at PHO – $3,900 (DK), $3,800 (FD), $8,500 (FDRAFT) – Crawford is averaging over a fantasy points per minute against the Suns this season and has yet to score fewer than 24.5 DK points against them in their three meetings. He has played at least 25 minutes in nine consecutive games and should see that type of run again tonight, especially with Austin Rivers out. The Suns come in ranked 27th in defense rating and play at a fast pace. At this price, it will not take much for Crawford to reach value and in this matchup, there is a ceiling.
Trevor Ariza – HOU at POR – $5,700 (DK), $5,600 (FD), $11,300 (FDRAFT) – Ariza has posted back-to-back productive games and looks to make it a third against Portland who ranks 22nd in defense rating and yields over 40 fantasy points per game to small forwards. Although the nine steals in his last two games is part of the production and that is unsustainable, Ariza continues to play big minutes for the Rockets, averaging 38.1 minutes per game over his last four and that should not change. He has played twice against the Trail Blazers this season and has exceeded expectations in each of those games by an average of +3.98 points, while averaging 29.9 DK points per game. This contest has the highest over/under of the slate and just a 1.5 point spread, so this should stay close and be high scoring, which equates to potential fantasy points.
Al-Farouq Aminu – POR vs. HOU – $4,500 (DK), $4,600 (FD), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Aminu went through a cold streak earlier this month, but if you look at his schedule, they were in tough matchups and mainly on the road. That has caused his price to drop a significant amount and now it is time to take advantage of it. Tonight he faces off against Houston who ranks 20th in defense rating over their last five games and are playing at the second fastest pace over that span. Aminu has played at least 26 minutes in each of his last four games and is averaging 10.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 steals, and over 24 fantasy points per game. In the last 10 games, the Rockets have allowed 22.6 points and 12.8 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, to go along with the eighth most fantasy points per game. Aminu finds himself in a favorable spot and so long as he plays his regular allotment of minutes, he should have no trouble reaching value, while offering a ceiling in this matchup.
Clint Capela – HOU at POR – $5,600 (DK), $5,600 (FD), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – Capela continues to be an efficient player for his price and it the good news is that it has not increased much, making him a nice value play. He gets a favorable matchup against Portland who has allowed +2.32 points above expectations to opposing centers. Capela is averaging 25.7 minutes per game in the month of March and 30.1 DK points, which is equivalent to 1.17 fantasy points per minutes. In two games against Portland this season, he is averaging 29.4 minutes per game and 33 DK points per game. His style of play bodes well for this matchup and he should be in for another productive evening at a very reasonable price.
Alex Len – PHO vs. LAC – $4,700 (DK), $5,000 (FD), $9,200 (FDRAFT) – Len and Alan Williams are splitting playing time, but Len has been the more consistent of the two and also comes at a cheaper price across the board. Over his last seven games, he has averaged 1.03 fantasy points per minute and faces off against the Clippers who are yielding a fantasy point per minute to opposing centers. They also allow +1.91 points above expectations to the position. The Suns are dealing with a bunch of injuries and have shut people down for the season, so Len should still see his 24-26 minutes in this contest, even if it is a blowout. Plus the Clippers should always have a big man out there, which bodes well for Len. He offers nice upside at this price and will not hurt you on most nights.
Good luck all – Armando
If you have any questions, you can always reach out to me via Twitter @Armando_marsal or in the Fanvice.com premium slack chat. Also, don’t forget to tune into The Final Countdown on FanVice Live for all the last minute news and analysis.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.