NBA Bargains 3/28/17
Happy Tuesday! Let us look at the games from the eight-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: DraftKings main slate is only SIX games, excluding the two later west coast games. Bargains may include players from that game, but will only list FanDuel/FantasyDraft pricing. Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Ish Smith – DET vs. MIA – $4,500 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,900 (FDRAFT) – Not a super matchup against the Heat, but the price is right for Ish, especially on FanDuel, considering that Reggie Jackson is out tonight, securing the still-playoff eligible Pistons PG for 30+ minutes tonight.
T.J. McConnell – PHI at BKN – $5,500 (FD), $5,500 (DK), $10,900 (FDRAFT) – With Sergio Rodriguez questionable tonight, TJMC could see 30 minutes again, which would be a great boost in this matchup against the Nets and 25 minutes of Jeremy Lin. TJMC has poked his head above 30 DK points twice in the last four games.
Louis Williams – HOU vs. GSW – $4,600 (FD), $5,200 (DK), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – LOOOOUUUUUUUUU. It is fun to say as he hits one of his ceiling games, which is very much in play in this high scoring shootout type game against the Warriors. One caveat is that the Warriors have been the best pace adjusted defense (PADR) score over the past seven games, but the Rockets are the best offense over the same. The high usage players, especially Lou at a depressed price point, are in play in this game for sure.
Allen Crabbe – POR vs. DEN – $3,800 (FD), $8,500 (FDRAFT) – I do not think I have put Crabbe in this Bargains all season, but his minutes have been super secure over the last two weeks, his usage is slightly up, over 18% raw usage in three of his last four games, and the Trail Blazers have the third best pace adjusted matchup score of the night, behind the Warriors and Wizards. He is a cheap punt play at SG, especially on FanDuel, where two SGs are mandatory fun.
Taurean Prince – ATL vs. PHX – $3,800 (FD), $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FDRAFT) – There will be chalk, oh yes, there will be chalk. Prince is locked into 35 minutes tonight due to the injury status of Paul Millsap and Thabo Sefolosha. Prince will play because he provides some semblance of defense and energy on a team that is in the bottom half of the league in PADR, especially without Millsap. He also can shoot the three fairly well, another must on this team that will now rely even more on PG Dennis Schröder and C Dwight Howard. He is more of a cash game play because his usage will not spike up which will limit a blow it out ceiling, but also due to what will surely be industry leading ownership tonight, especially on FanDuel.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson – BKN vs. PHI – $4,700 (FD), $5,200 (DK -PF), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – He will not play more than 25 minutes, evidently, but that has not matter, especially on FD, where RHJ is an attractive tourney pivot from Prince, considering he has scored 30+ FD points in each of his last three games and gets a very good matchup here, at home, against the Sixers.
Ersan Ilyasova – ATL vs. PHX – $4,800 (FD), $6,000 (DK), $11,900 (FDRAFT) – Ersanity has finally begun to get 30 minutes in Atlanta, much for the same reasons listed with Taurean Prince above. The matchup against Phoenix is especially tasty, considering the Suns’ standing as the second worst PADR in the league over the last seven games.
Larry Nance – LAL vs. WAS – $4,000 (FD), $7,700 (FDRAFT) – With Brandon Ingram doubtful for tonight (as of this writing – check FanVice during the shows for latest news), Nance is in line for 30 minutes in a sensational matchup against the Wizards, who are the eighth worst PADR over the last seven games. Should be a similar matchup as the game against the Timberwolves, where Nance had 26+ FD points.
Ivica Zubac – LAL vs.WAS – $4,400 (FD), $10,500 (FDRAFT) – Zubac will start, but is tourney only as the way Luke Walton deploys him is inconsistent. Still, the production when on the floor, 0.95 FD points per minute, is a terrific value should he see the 30+ minutes he saw against MIN.
Shawn Long – PHI at BKN – $4,500 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – Jahlil Okafor is out again, giving Long a pathway to the same 22-25 minutes he has seen over the past three games, where we have seen 32, 28 and 30% raw usage when on the floor. He is scoring 1.41 DK points per minute and has a terrific matchup here against Brooklyn.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.