NBA Bargains 3/27/17
Happy Monday! Let us look at the games from the six-game main slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Reggie Jackson – DET at NYK – $4,600 (FD), $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FDRAFT)– The Knicks do not have the troublesome backcourt combination that usually chains Jackson to the bench due to defensive issues. Besides, the Knicks are tank-tastic right now anyway, even at home. The Knicks and Orlando are tied with 27 and the Kings are only one game back – all three are on the slate tonight. Could be a tankeriffic night, leaving a high usage play like Jackson (29.7 and 29.8% over last two games), on a team that wants to win and make the playoffs, very much in play here. The Knicks are already the ninth worst pace adjusted defense (PADR) over the last seven games, including games before they started to fade the season.
Delon Wright – TOR vs. ORL – $3,700 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – Orlando tanking, the Raptors at home, and good matchup anyway as Orlando is the seventh worst PADR over the last seven games, all of which adds up to an easy game for the Raps. This makes Wright, who has 23 minutes played in each of the last two games, an interesting min priced play. Wright has shown a higher raw usage play in these two games, with 22.9 and 25.1%, scoring 29.25 and 20.25 DK points in those games.
Buddy Hield – SAC vs. MEM – $5,400 (FD), $5,700 (DK), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – I have no clue why the Kings decided it was a great idea to showcase Tyreke Evans yesterday instead of playing Hield more than 23 minutes, but they put him in just in time to come back against the Clippers, shocking them, and anybody looking for the Kings to tank, by winning that game late. Hield should be playing 30+ minutes in these meaningless games and if he does, his mid-high 20% raw usage will lead to excellent value, as he achieved even in that 23 minute effort on FanDuel yesterday.
Jordan Crawford – NOP at UTAH – $3,500 (FD), $3,500 (DK), $7,000 (FDRAFT) – Look, I tried to find someone else other than Crawford, but finding someone that will have 25-30% raw usage at a sub 4K price an in the regular rotation is tough to find at this position. Crawford played 24 minutes against the Nuggets yesterday, scoring 29.50 DK points. Against Utah already earlier in the month, Crawford played 20 minutes, had 32.2% raw usage and scored 28.70 DK points.
Mindaugas Kuzminskas – NYK vs. DET – $3,700 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – Kuz has played 31 and 35 minutes in place of Carmelo Anthony and if Melo sits again, Kuz is in play against, especially on FD, where his price went down to 3.7K. The usage has not been great for Kuzminskas, at 18.2 and 15%, but the 29 and 24.75 DK points provide a solid baseline of production to project upside.
Mario Hezonja – ORL at TOR – $3,600 (FD -SG), $3,200 (DK), $6,300 (FDRAFT -G) – With Jeff Green out, as he is again tonight, Hezonja has seen 23 and 27 minutes his last two games, scoring 20.75 and 19.50 in those games. With the Magic playing for nothing, Hezonja should continue to see steady minutes down the stretch
Zach Randolph – MEM at SAC – $5,200 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – If Marc Gasol misses again, then Randolph is good to go again tonight. He is a high 20s usage guy, with or without Gasol, but the minutes get bigger with Gasol out, evidenced by his 29 minute effort against the Warriors.
Jon Leuer – DET at NYK – $4,300 (FD), $4,100 (DK), $8,000 (FDRAFT) – Leuer is in good shape to attack a weak Knicks defensive frontcourt, even in a blowout, potentially. Leuer has been a steady mid-high 20s minutes play, with scoring in the low 20s on FanDuel in four of his last five games.
Guillermo Hernangomez – NYK vs. DET – $5,100 (FD), $5,200 (DK), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – Good matchup against DET bigs, and Hernangomez is always an excellent tourney play, evidenced by his 46.75 DK point triumph Saturday against the Spurs, of all teams. If Melo sits again, and Porzingis is being powered down here at the end of the season, then Hernangomez is in line for another busy night.
Kyle O’Quinn – NYK vs. DET – $4,100 (FD), $3,800 (DK), $7,400 (FDRAFT) – Additionally, there are few big men as prolific in lesser minutes than KOQ (1.22 DK points per minute), who is tourney only, only, only. KOQ has scored 42.25 in 35 minutes over the last two games and is in a great spot if the Knicks continue to fade into the lottery.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.