NBA Bargains 3/22/17
Happy Wednesday! Let us look at the games from this solid eight-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on FantasyDraft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice articles/shows for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Malcolm Brogdon – $5,000 (FD), $5,000 (KD), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Broggy Pants gets a date with the Sacramento Kings, who have been the third worst pace adjusted defense (PAD) over the last seven games. Brogdon only played 25 minutes against POR, but has been getting significantly more minutes on the back end of back to backs this month.
Rajon Rondo – CHI vs. DET – $5,400 (FD), $5,700 (DK), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – Risky to chase last night’s epic first half, where Rondo met value before the second quarter horn rang out, but if the Bulls are determined to make their run with Rondo at the helm, then this is too low a price. He has eclipsed 20% usage in three of the past five games and has seen 35, 34, 32, 21 and 40 minutes in his last five games.
Rodney Hood – UTA at HOU – $3,900 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $9,200 (FDRAFT) – Hood came back and started against Indiana, but some old fashioned Rodney Hood foul trouble landed him at 15 minutes, which may trick folks into thinking minutes limit. He had 34% raw usage in that 15 minutes and gets a matchup against the ninth worst PAD of the Knicks at home in Utah.
J.R. Smith – CLE at DEN – $3,600 (FD), $4,400 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – If Kyle Korver plays tonight, highly consider Smith on FanDuel as he would move into the starting lineup with LBJ/Irving and see considerably better shots against a Denver team giving up the sixth most three pointer per game over the last seven games and allowing the third highest 3FG%.
Terrence Ross – ORL vs. CHA – $3,900 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – Looks like a spending up night at SF unless you enjoy eating Paul Zipser chalk on DK/FDRAFT tonight (I do not). No Jeff Green tonight for Orlando, so minutes are even more secure for Ross and Aaron Gordon. Ross has been in a slump after a three-game honeymoon period after first coming to Orlando, but bounced back against Philly for a 24 FD point game and that was going 4-15. Charlotte is a much tougher matchup but Ross is one of the few guys that can deliver a 6x number at his 3.9K FD salary at the position.
Paul Zipser – CHI vs. DET – $3,500 (FD), $3,100 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – IF Robin Lopez is suspended for this game for his fight with Serge Ibaka last night AND Cristiano Felicio is out with his sore back, THEN you can consider Zipser because, like last night, the minutes could be there as they chose to go small against Toronto in a similar spot. But he will be considerably chalky tonight, especially on DK, so buyer VERY much beware because his usage the last two nights has been 6.7% and 12.4%.
Skal Labissiere – SAC vs. MIL – $4,200 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – The Kings have Skal locked into the rotation and he has enjoyed over 20% raw usage in his last nine games on the floor. The matchup against MIL is a positional positive one for Skal, with the rookie also having 30+ fantasy point upside.
Ersan Ilyasova -ATL at WAS – $4,500 (FD), $5,500 (DK), $10,900 (FDRAFT) – With Paul Millsap still out, the Hawks are starting Ersan and they need his shooting anyway to combat the defensive strategies against the Hawks lately. He is only a FD play here in cash, but tourney playable on all sites, with the very positive matchup against Washington, the Hawks needing a win here, Ersan’s mid 20% raw usage and a strong 215.5 game total.
Steven Adams – OKC vs. PHI – $4,900 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Super matchup against the Sixers, whether or not Jahlil Okafor plays (questionable), but even stronger if he does. Adams is coming off a miserable game in a bad fit matchup for him against the Warriors, but he should see time against hack happy Richaun Holmes and Shawn Long tonight. Enes Kanter is also an excellent play in same matchup.
WHOEVER STARTS FOR THE BULLS AT CENTER vs. ANDRE DRUMMOND – $3,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – Robin Lopez is likely to be suspended, so it’s Felicio if he starts or King Joffrey Lauvergne if Felicio is out with his sore back. Min priced big in a want-to-win game for the Bulls against Andre Drummond is a very good value play. Just beware of Chicago going potentially smaller.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.