NBA Bargains 3/21/17
Happy Tuesday! Let us look at the games from the five-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Austin Rivers – LAC at LAL – $4,000 (FD), $3,800 (DK), $7,400 (FDRAFT) – Tied for the best matchup on the slate, the Clippers are on the road, but not really, and are playing the back end of a back to back and are favored by nine over the Lakers. All of which leads to potentially more floor time for Rivers, who continues to have substantial usage nights, like the 29.8% raw usage he turned in last night against the Knicks.
J.J. Barea – DAL vs. GSW – $4,900 (FD), $4,100 (DK), $8,100 (FDRAFT) – Another huge backup PG in terms of raw usage, Barea’s last two games since returning from injury has seen him at 39.1 and 30.8%, massive totals. He played 26 minutes last time out in an island game, and is on an island game again tonight. The matchup is less than stellar, but the raw usage and low price on DK/FDRAFT is value enough.
Jordan Crawford – NOP vs. MEM – $3,600 (FD), $4,100 (DK), $8,000 (FDRAFT) – Crawford has been getting consistent second team run, with high raw usage. Against Minnesota last game, Crawford played 21 minutes with 31% raw usage. New Orleans has been 13th in pace adjusted offensive rating over the last seven games and Memphis has been merely average defensively, ranking 14th in pace adjusted defensive rating.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – DET at CLE – $4,700 (FD), $5,600 (DK), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – Mainly a FD play here, priced low despite erupting in a similar matchup against the Suns last time out (37.60 FD points). The Pistons lack the offensive efficiency to truly take massive advantage of Brooklyn’s eighth worst defensive rating over the last seven games, but KCP on FD is good value.
Brandon Ingram – LAL vs. LAC – $4,500 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Ingram continues to be a great value on FD, especially in cash games. His minutes consistency, save for one game against Boston due to foul trouble, provides an excellent floor. His production per minute is still poor, but his last three games (39, 34 and 40 minutes) has seen 27.70, 23.20 and 27.70 FD points at his low price. The matchup against the Clippers is not oppressive, as the Clippers rank slightly below average over the last seven games in defensive rating.
Josh Richardson – MIA vs. PHX – $4,600 (FD – SG), $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FDRAFT – G) – Cash game only as Richardson’s raw usage has not been great even though his minutes have gone up without Dion Waiters in play. The matchup, however, should be excellent, as the Heat are tied with the Clippers with the best team matchup on the slate. 32-34 minutes in this matchup provide an excellent floor for cash games.
Gorgui Dieng – MIN vs. SAS – $5,200 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,900 (FDRAFT) – Dieng has had excellent success against the Spurs this season, 33.20 FD and 37.70 FD points in 65 minutes overall in the last two games. The Spurs are a tough matchup, ranking eight toughest over the last seven games, but the Timberwolves have been excellent offensively, ninth best over the same span.
Tobias Harris – DET at BKN – $5,400 (FD), $6,000 (DK), $11,900 (FDRAFT) – FanDuel play here, as Harris scored 29.30 FD points this season. The matchup is not super for the Pistons, as their own offensive inefficiency has weighed down the Pistons offense as a whole, scoring 29th in pace adjusted offensive rating. But the Nets are the eighth worst defensive rating over the same seven game span.
Ivica Zubac – LAL vs. LAC – $4,300 (FD), $5,300 (DK), $10,500 (FDRAFT) – Zubac will start, but is only in play on FanDuel, as his minutes are not still secure as Luke Walton loves to go small with Larry Nance/Julius Randle fulfilling the center responsibilities. However, against DeAndre Jordan, there is more likelihood that Zubac gets the high 20s minutes his starting role implies. If he does, the matchup is excellent and his near point per minute production will make for sensational value on FD.
Alex Len – PHX at MIA – $4,600 (FD), $4,000 (DK), $7,800 (FDRAFT) – Tourney only, as the road matchup against Miami and Len’s minutes inconsistency is commensurate with his highly productive rate when on the floor. In the last two games, Len has played 49 minutes, used 23.3 and 27.1% raw usage and produced a massive 54.75 DK points in that span.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.