NBA Bargains 3/20/17
Happy Monday! Let us look at the games from the seven-game main slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Jameer Nelson – DEN at HOU – $5,500 (FD), $5,500 (DK), $10,800 (FDRAFT) – Nelson sneaks in here coming off a massive 43.75 game in Denver against these same Rockets. His price jumped from $4,300 to $5,500 now based on the last two games, which has seen Nelson play 33 and 39 minutes, even with Jamal Murray seeing 22-23 per game. The game total is an insane 238.5 and both these teams are in the top three in pace adjusted offensive rating.
Austin Rivers – LAC vs. NYK – $4,000 (FD), $3,800 (DK), $7,400 (FDRAFT) – Basically a minutes play here, as the rest of the PGs are either priced more than appropriately or just are not getting the usage to score points, even at a reduced cost. Rivers gets the Knicks, who are ninth worst in adjusted defensive rating and Austin has received 33 and 29 minutes played the last two games as Chris Paul takes it easy down the stretch.
Evan Fournier – ORL vs. PHI – $5,400 (FD), $5,600 (DK), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – The vaunted full 2x DK pricing from FantasyDraft for Fournier, who is ridiculously low priced on FanDuel at $5,400. Fournier is coming off a throttling of Phoenix on the road, playing 35 minutes, using 27% possessions and scoring 34.75 DK points. With Nic Vucevic questionable tonight, that would open up even more possessions for Fournier against a Sixers defense that has been seventh worst in adjusted defensive rating over the past seven games.
Timothe Luawau-Cabarrot – $3,800 (FD), $3,800 (DK), $7,400 (FDRAFT) – Hard to say what TLC’s ceiling is, but he has moved into the starting lineup for the Sixers and played 33, 27, 23, 29 and 29 minutes over the last five games, with raw usage ranging from 13.5 (in the first game in that stretch) to 22.7 (in the last game over that stretch). He gets the Magic tonight, who are third worst over the past seven games in adjusted offensive rating.
Taurean Prince – ATL at CHA – $3,700 (FD), $3,500 (DK), $7,000 (FDRAFT) – With Paul Millsap out, folks are assuming that Prince will play the Millsap role, but he has been more of a versatile hustle man in his rookie season for the Hawks, and will lose raw usage playing on the first team, if that is where he lands tonight. A better situation for Prince will be off the bench, where he will not lose rebounds to Howard, shots to Dennis and THJ and can use his hustle to pile up the points.
Andre Iguodala – GSW vs. OKC – $4,900 (FD), $4,600 (DK-SG), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – Matt Barnes has taken a little shine away from Iggy as a replacement for Kevin Durant, but the last two games has seen Andre scored 29.50 and 31.50 DK points in the last two games and now this game against the Thunder has a 222.5 game total. The Thunder have the sixth worst pace adjusted defensive rating over the past seven games.
Ersan Ilyasova – ATL at CHA – $4,500 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,900 (FDRAFT) – I have been advocating for the Hawks to play Ersan more in order to spread the floor for Schröder, Howard, etc. Now with Millsap hurt, Ersan played the most minutes he had played since coming to Atlanta, 27, and scored 37 DK points, very repeatable against tonight if he starts again.
Richaun Holmes – PHI at ORL – $4,800 (FD), $5,100 (DK-C), $10,100 (FDRAFT) – Holmes has done very well in the absence of Embiid, Noel and Jahlil Okafor, who is questionable again tonight. Certainly, the sledding would be tougher if Nikola Vucevic sits and Bismack Biyombo plays, but if Okafor is out, Holmes has scored 30.40 and 35.90 FD points in a total of 48 minutes in that situation. Boom.
Enes Kanter – OKC vs. GSW – $5,500 (FD-PF), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Huge usage recently, with 34.4, 31.1, 33.6 and 38.6 raw usage in his last four games. Problem is, he has not play more than 19 minutes in any of those games. Good news is this: He played 29 minutes the last time OKC play GSW and they will need offense to keep up with the Warriors. High usage plays like Kanter are always worth the dart in tourneys.
Clint Capela – HOU vs. DEN – $5,300 (FD), $5,400 (DK), $10,600 (FDRAFT) – He is going to play 24-26 minutes in the game of the night, at least point total wise, and his price has dropped slightly. He is significantly better in Houston and though he played only 24 minutes, consider that Nene played the most minutes in a game than he had played since January 27th, meaning it is not likely to repeat tonight. Capela, even in that 24 minutes, scored 30 DK points and had 24.7% usage.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.