NBA Bargains 3/19/17
Happy Sunday! Let us look at the games from the five-game main slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Tyler Johnson – MIA vs. POR – $5,400 (FD), $5,500 (DK), $10,900 (FDRAFT) – No Dion Waiters open things up in terms of possession usage and Miami has been the fourth best pace adjusted offensive rating over the last seven games. Tyler should see 32-33 minutes and get his 23% raw usage without Waiters.
Cory Joseph – TOR vs. IND – $4,900 (FD), $4,800 (DK), $9,400 (FDRAFT) – Cash game play here as Joseph’s minutes have been set at 32-33 since Kyle Lowry went down. Not a great matchup but Joseph’s 20% raw usage, those minutes, and assists potential feeding a positive big matchup with Jonas Valanciunas, gives Joseph a solid floor, especially on FD.
Jordan Crawford – NOP vs. MIN – $3,500 (FD), $4,400 (DK), $8,700 (FDRAFT) – He has not had that value blowout that he is capable of, even dipping in minutes with DeMarcus Cousins out last game. However, a heavy usage guy like Crawford (26, 23 and 29 percent last three games) and a 0.83 DKPPM player like Crawford is worth a tourney flyer, always, like Michael Beasley and Kyle O’Quinn, especially at a starved position like SG on a site like FanDuel.
Wayne Ellington – MIA vs. POR – $4,000 (FD), $3,900 (DK-SF), $7,600 (FDRAFT) – More tourney ready due to his dependence on shooting well to go off, Ellington averages 20% raw usage and 21 FD points per game in 30 minutes with Dion Waiters missing games this season.
Shabazz Muhammed – MIN at NOP – $3,700 (FD), $4,000 (DK), $7,800 (FDRAFT) – With 31 and 27 minutes his last two games and potential minutes thief Lance Stephenson questionable, Shabazz and his low 20% raw usage should find himself with similar minutes and 23 FD per game over those two games.
Brandon Ingram – LAL vs. CLE – $4,400 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Minutes, minutes, minutes. Ingram gets them, with 39 and 34 over his last two games. Tall task against the well-rested LeBron James Cavaliers, but Ingram’s minutes and consistency in production, especially in cash games, where his 22-30 FD points will resonate, makes him a fine target here.
Gorgui Dieng – MIN at NOP – $5,100 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Solid production when on the court (0.85 DKPPM) and they will need Dieng’s size and defense against Boogie Cousins and Anthony Davis in this one. Cash game here, especially on FanDuel, at a position that will be tough to find dependable bargains.
Skal Labissiere – SAC at SAS – $4,200 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Phony baloney foul trouble (he ended with three fouls for the game) cost him rotational minutes in his last game against OKC, but it is clear that the Kings are going to find 25ish minutes for the high usage Labissiere, who has not had less than 20% usage since February 27th, a span of eight games in which he has had more than 10 minutes.
Jonas Valanciunas – TOR vs. IND – $5,400 (FD), $4,800 (DK), $9,400 (FDRAFT) – Always risky due to Duane Casey’s quick hook, JoVal has succeeded in similarly slow paced, big man games, scoring 46.75 DK points against New Orleans and 35 against Dallas in his last seven games. Indiana gives a substantial positional boost here as well.
Ivica Zubac – LAL vs. CLE – $4,200 (FD), $5,600 (DK), $11,100 (FDRAFT) – FanDuel play only here, as his price has taken off on DK/FDRAFT, and the individual matchup is neutral. Zubac has turned in FD scores of 23.60, 23.20, 40.70, 5.90 (phony baloney foul trouble -four fouls) and 29.10 in his last five game since being named starter.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.