NBA Bargains 3/18/17
Happy Saturday folks! Tonight we have six-game main slate with some affordable options that can free up some salary in order to fit in some of the higher priced players into our lineups. The following teams are on their second night of a back-to-back, Chicago, Washington, Houston, and Milwaukee. The highest total of the slate is the Houston – Denver game at a whopping 239.5 o/u and just a three point spread, so this is a game you certainly want exposure to. Let’s waste no more time and jump right into tonight’s bargains.
Jamal Murray – DEN vs. HOU – $4,900 (DK), $4,400 (FD), $9,700 (FDRAFT) – The Nuggets have already ruled out Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari for tonight’s game. When they are off the court, Murray sees a 4.1 percent boost in usage and an increase of 7.5 in +/- differentials. He has played at least 20 minutes in each of his last three games and has not scored than 20 fantasy points once during that stretch, averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minutes. He makes for an interesting tournament play, who could possibly go overlooked tonight.
George Hill – UTA at CHI – $5,900 (DK), $6,000 (FD), $11,600 (FDRAFT) – Hill did not pan out as I hoped on Wednesday and has now had two consecutive subpar performances. That being said, this is a good spot for a bounce back game. The Bulls have been awful against point guards in recent games, allowing the second most fantasy points per game to the position in their last 10 and the most in their last five. They are also ranked 20th in defensive efficiency over their last five games as a team. Hill is not the most exciting player to watch, but he is capable of 40+ fantasy point games and at this price that would be golden. If there is a matchup to have that type of performance, it would be this one.
Patty Mills- SAS vs. MEM- $5,500 (DK), $4,500 (FD), $10,900 (FDRAFT) – Tony Parker has missed the last four games and during that stretch, Mills has averaged 29.3 minutes, 13.5 points, 4.8 assists, 1.8 rebounds, one steal and three 3-pointers per game. He has also topped 30 fantasy points in three of his last five games, including twice during that four game stretch. This is far from a good matchup, but if you are looking for an economical point guard that will play decent minutes and has been efficient as of late, Mills fits the bill. He only makes sense if Parker is ruled out, otherwise, Mills is not in play. Keep an eye on the news.
Eric Gordon – HOU at DEN – $5,000 (DK), $4,900 (FD), $9,900 (FDRAFT) – It is tough picking out which wing for the Rockets to use on a nightly basis, but I definitely want exposure to some of them against this Nuggets defense that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and plays up in pace. Digging into the situation a bit, I noticed that Gordon has been playing consistent minutes in the last five games, averaging 30.5 minutes per game and has played fewer than 29 minutes once during that stretch. He has also attempted at least 11 shots in each of those games and if it was not for his poor shooting, under 37 percent during that time frame, he could have been far more productive. Shooting guards are actually averaging a 46.1 field goal percentage against Denver, which is the highest in the league, which is good news for him. Gordon is reasonably priced across the industry and if he gets off to a good start, has a solid chance to smash value. It is worth noting that Lou Williams can also be considered, but is far more volatile than Gordon and comes at a higher price.
Gary Harris – DEN vs. HOU – $5,900 (DK), $6,000 (FD), $11,600 (FDRAFT) – Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari have been ruled out, when they are off the court, Harris sees a four percent boost in usage. He has topped 29 DK points in three straight contests, including two 30+ fantasy point games. The Rockets give up the sixth most fantasy points to shooting guards and have allowed +0.95 points above expectations. They are also yielding three 3-pointers and 1.6 steals per game to the position, which are categories that Harris excels in. Although his salary is getting up there, he is still affordable and can exceed expectations at this price point.
Trevor Ariza – HOU at DEN – $5,300 (DK), $5,200 (FD), $10,500 (FDRAFT) – Ariza has been more efficient from a fantasy standpoint in recent games, averaging 12.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 steals, and over 25 fantasy points per game in his last five. During that stretch, he has drained 13 threes and has topped 30 fantasy points two times. His usage has certainly been affected by Lou Williams, but he is still playing big minutes for the Rockets. His last time out against Denver, he topped 40 DK points. The matchup is one that favors him as the Nuggets rank 29th in defensive efficiency and play up-tempo basketball. At this fair price, he is in a good position to pay off his salary and some.
Nikola Mirotic – CHI at UTA – $4,400 (DK), $4,300 (FD), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – If it were not for the fact that he is playing against the Jazz, Mirotic’s price would likely be a tad higher. Over his last three games, he has averaged 29.3 minutes, 17.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.7 blocks, and over 30 fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he is also sporting a healthy 23.8 usage rate, has gone 10-of-28 from beyond the arc, and is averaging over a fantasy point per minute. The matchup is not one that is appealing, but at this price it will not take much for Mirotic to hit value.
Mason Plumlee – DEN vs. HOU – $6,000 (DK), $6,000 (FD), $11,900 (FDRAFT) – Plumlee got the start for Denver at power forward in their last contest and is expected to get another start tonight. Over his last six games, he is averaging 28.2 minutes, 11.7 points, 8.8 rebounds, five assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. He has four double-doubles during that stretch and has topped 30 fantasy points four times. Despite being a big man, he is also a great passer and that is good news as the Rockets give up the third most assists to opposing bigs. With Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari out, and Darrell Arthur questionable, Plumlee could see plenty of run again in this contest.
Cody Zeller – CHA vs. WAS – $4,900 (DK), $5,000 (FD), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Zeller comes at a very low price tonight despite the favorable matchup. The Wizards have allowed +3.55 points above expectations to opposing centers and are giving up over 50 fantasy points per game to the position over their last 10 games. The Wizards have also surrendered 15.9 points in the paint per game over their last 10 (seventh most), which bodes well for Zeller who averages 7.6 points in the paint per game. While he does not offer huge upside, he does offer some steadiness so long as he plays his full allotment of minutes, making him an interesting option in tonight’s slate.
Clint Capela – HOU at DEN – $5,400 (DK), $5,400 (FDRAFT), $10,600 (FDRAFT) – Capela is coming off of a poor performance last night which will likely cause his ownership to be lower than it should be tonight. He went into last night’s game, averaging 24.8 minutes, 14.8 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 0.7 blocks, and 0.5 steals per game. During that stretch he topped 30 fantasy points multiple times and recorded four double-doubles. He averages a healthy 1.14 fantasy point per minute and faces a Nuggets defense that has allowed +2.48 points above expectations to opposing centers. If you are attempting to get a potentially low owned player in this high total contest, Capela is your guy. He will get plenty of rebounding opportunities in this game, as there should be plenty of shot attempts.
Good luck all – Armando
If you have any questions, you can always reach out to me via Twitter @Armando_marsal or in the Fanvice.com premium slack chat. Also, don’t forget to tune into The Final Countdown on FanVice Live for all the last minute news and analysis.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.