NBA Bargains 3/17/17
Happy Friday and Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Let us look at the games from the eight-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Marcus Smart – BOS vs. BKN – $6,200 (FD-SG), $4,900 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Isaiah Thomas and his 30% raw usage will miss a few games, so Smart is expected to step in and play those minutes, thought the usage will get spread around. Against Brooklyn and their sixth worst pace adjusted defensive rating (last seven games), it will not matter, especially on DK, where he is below 5K.
Tyler Ulis – PHX vs. ORL – $5,400 (FD), $5,700 (DK), $11,300 (FDRAFT) – Eric Bledsoe is out, so Ulis steps into the first team, where he has been playing some minutes anyway, and is a terrific deal against a sorry Orlando team (third worst pace adjusted defensive rating over the last seven games) on the back end of a back to back out West. There is a huge 220 number and the Suns are only three point favorites. Go for it.
Jordan Crawford – NOP vs. HOU – $3,500 (FD), $4,400 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Two down games do not dissuade me from the high usage Crawford, who now gets the high pace, mediocre defense of the Houston Rockets. The game total is up to 229 as of this writing and the box score stuffing Crawford needs only playing time, in that he had 10 points, four rebounds, three assists, two threes and a steal in his “down game” in 20 minutes against Miami.
Denzel Valentine – CHI at WAS – $3,700 (FD), $4,100 (DK), $8,000 (FDRAFT) – With Dwyane Wade out for the regular season, Valentine has been getting minutes (23, 23, 27, 27 over the last four games) and producing a DK point per minute. The matchup against Washington is great as they are second worst in pace adjusted defensive rating over the past seven games.
E’Twaun Moore – NOP vs. HOU – $3,900 (FD-SG), $3,500 (DK), $6,900 (FDRAFT) – Not an awesomely upside play here, but he should get 33-35 minutes here in this huge pace up/points up matchup and his 0.72 fantasy points per minutes makes an alright punt in cash games at a difficult position.
Brandon Ingram – LAL vs. MIL – $4,400 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,900 (FDRAFT) – Still really cash game only on FanDuel, where he is $4,400 as the Bucks are one of the worst teams to target due to their super-laborious pace. They are second in pace adjusted defensive rating over the past seven games. Still, 39 minutes last game for Ingram, who has only not played so much in a blowout, something not in play here.
Nikola Mirotic – CHI at WAS – $4,300 (FD), $4,300 (DK), $8,500 (FDRAFT) – With the tighter rotation Fred Hoiberg has deployed, now even tighter and with more available usage with Wade out, Mirotic has settled in again, playing 27.5 minutes and 34.50 DK points per game in those two games, using 28.4 and 24.6% of the possessions. The matchup against Washington, as noted above with Valentine, is elite, as is the specific positional matchup here for Mirotic.
Marquese Chriss – PHX vs. ORL – $4,800 (FD), $5,300 (DK), $10,500 (FDRAFT) – Orlando has that third worst pace adjusted defensive rating over the last seven games and is weaker on the back end of a back to back, while Chriss should take advantage of some leftover usage from Bledsoe being out and a slightly positive positional matchup with the Magic. Against the Kings in a similar matchup, Chriss has 32 mintues, 23.9% raw usage and 39.40 FD points, where he is the better play today.
Ivica Zubac – LAL vs. MIL – $4,100 (FD), $5,400 (DK), $10,600 (FDRAFT) – Good time to go back to Zubac on FD, after a foul trouble induced short night when he was popular. Milwaukee does not start Greg Monroe, so there should not be a high usage play at center when Zubac starts, giving him some statistical momentum. Also, the positional matchup is excellent, even if the team matchup is not, and his price on FD makes him very playable there, not so much on DK/FDRAFT.
Robin Lopez – CHI at WAS – $4,500 (FD), $4,000 (DK), $7,900 (FDRAFT) – It’s a risky play, as Lopez has seen his minutes yanked at a moment’s notice in game, but the positional and team matchup is excellent for Lopez, especially at his low cost on DK/FDRAFT. In January, Lopez played 33 minutes and scored 26 DK points against Washington and the Wizards have gotten precipitously worse defensively since that time. Tourney only, as a center punt play.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.