NBA Bargains 3/13/17
Happy Monday! Let us look at the games from the eight-game main slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Patty Mills – SAS vs. ATL – $4,000 (FD), $4,400 (DK), $8,700 (FDRAFT) – Beware the Patty Mills chalk. However, in this matchup against the Hawks, who are stout defending the frontcourt but much weaker in the backcourt, there is reason for optimism regarding Mills’ value here, especially in cash games, where his ownership will not matter as much, nor does his reduced ceiling. The last game, with both Tony Parker and Dejuante Murray out, as they are in this game, Mills and Manu Ginobili divvied up the PG minutes, with very little overlap. As such, had there not been a blowout, Ginobili would have likely played 22-23 minutes and Mills 25-26. Still, with a boost from the ATL backcourt, Mills can reach the 28-30 fantasy points that would make him a solid cash game play here.
Jordan Clarkson – LAL at DEN – $5,200 (FD), $5,500 (DK), $10,800 (FDRAFT) – Forget the point chasing from Sunday night’s 52.50 DK point game – that is an outlier result. However, what is real is the expanded role Clarkson has played since Lou Williams’ departure. The last three games have seen Clarkson play 34, 35 and 33 minutes, with 23, 24.7 and 28.8% raw usage. It used to be a concern when a team came in to Denver on the back end of a back to back, but this season has seen teams, especially underdogs, excel in that situation, especially higher usage players like Clarkson, scoring 5.54 more DK points than their expected totals.
Manu Ginobili – SAS vs. ATL – $3,900 (FD), $3,500 (DK), $7,000 (FDRAFT) – So about Manu….He will see the minority of minutes share with Mills, but he was very active with those minutes. He is the playmaker when on the floor, even with Mills, as Manu has a 21.5% raw usage and massive 54.5 AST%. He posted 37.50 in 25 minutes against SAC and 26.25 in the blowout over Golden State in only 18 minutes. I would expect to see something closer to 22-23 minutes tonight, putting him well above the value threshold in both cash and tourney.
Evan Fournier – ORL at SAC – $5,500 (FD), $5,600 (DK), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – Mainly a FD play here, as the picking a vs. SAC SG has not been as automatic as in previous seasons. Fournier’s minutes are as secure as they come, with the exception being the road blowout in Charlotte. The Kings rocking the seventh worst defensive rating over the past five and seven games makes a blowout more unlikely and even though the pace of the game will be slow, the poor and porous defense of both these teams makes the game total 207, which might be in the higher end of the spectrum tonight.
Terrence Ross – ORL at SAC – $4,200 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9.800 (FDRAFT) – Only on FanDuel and only in tourneys, due to Ross’ maddening inconsistency in making his three-point shot, where he is 0-8 over his last two games. However, on FD, and considering his minutes locked at 32-34, Ross has to be considered, especially considering the lack of defense provided by both teams.
Brandon Ingram – LAL vs. PHI – $4,000 (FD), $5,100 (DK), $10,100 (FDRAFT) – Minutes, minutes, minutes. Another game, another massive minutes effort from Ingram Sunday night, where he had 37 minutes played. He is not producing a lot of fantasy goodness from them, but another 24 FD point effort last night made solid value in cash games, where he is in play again tonight on FanDuel, who dropped his price $200. He does not have the ceiling to play in tournaments or on DK/FDRAFT, but the cash game value on FD is sound here, especially with the commitment to minutes (even in blowouts) and the 230 game total.
Willie Cauley-Stein – SAC vs. ORL – $5,500 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Love the matchup at home for WCS, who gets the eternally leaky rim defense of Nikola Vucevic, who is in the bottom ten rim defenders in the league this season, for at least part of the game due to rotations, right about where WCS likes to take all of his shots.
Gorgui Dieng – MIN vs. WAS – $5,300 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – The Wizards come into Minneapolis on the fourth game in five nights, and Dieng had excellent success the last time out against the Wizards frontcourt, scoring 37.25 DK points back in January. The game total is a healthy 214.5 and the Wizards have the sixth worst defense over the last seven games while playing at the fifth highest pace overall.
Robin Lopez – CHI at CHA – $4,600 (FD), $4,300 (DK), $8,500 (FDRAFT) – A surprising stat is that Cody Zeller has been among the worst rim defenders in the league this season, ranking ninth worst for the season and second worst over the past two weeks. Lopez, meanwhile, has ramped up his productioin since Taj Gibson left town, scoring over 25 DK points in three of his last four games.
Ivica Zubac – LAL vs. PHI – $3,700 (FD), $3,900 (DK), $7,700 (FDRAFT) – Tourney only, as nobody’s minutes are more inconsistent than Zubac, who produced at a fantasy point per minute pace when he is in the game. Against the Sixers last night, Zubac has 24.50 DK points, but that was highly bolstered by four blocks in a handful of first half minutes. Against Denver last time, Zubac played 21 minutes and scored 25.50 points.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.