NBA Bargains 3/12/17
Happy Sunday! Let us look at the games from the five-game main slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock. Also, FantasyDraft is not offering any games before the 5pm ET starts and will not be listed for any players in those games.
Tyler Ulis – PHX vs. POR – $4,300 (FD), $4,800 (DK), $9,400 (FDRAFT) – Earl Watson has said that he wants to see Ulis as the playmaker on the second unit, and he has been getting low 20s minutes since then. He took a dive as soon as everyone started paying attention to him, but bounced back last night in Dallas, of all places, (23.10 FD points) and gets a much more fantasy friendly environment at home against Portland. A FanDuel play, primarily.
Jeremy Lin – BKN vs. NYK – $5,500 (FD), $5,200 (DK), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – Lin is starting but still playing around his 25 minute limit, but can still get to the 32-33 points you’ll want in a tournament here, especially on FD. Lin’s raw usage has been intense over the last four games, with 34, 29, 32 and 28% over those games. This has a high total (221) and Lin has been cranking over a fantasy point per minute.
Sean Kilpatrick – BKN vs. NYK – $4,200 (FD), $5,300 (DK), $10,500 (FDRAFT) – More FanDuel bargain here, as the 1.1K discrepancy really stands out. Same big total as I highlighted in Jeremy Lin above, and Kilpatrick is back in the steady minutes for the Nets, grabbing 26, 27, 29 and 23 in his last four games. Over that time, he’s increased his usage, with 24, 21, 29 and 31 over those games.
Courtney Lee – NYK at BKN – $5,100 (FD), $4,700 (DK), $9,200 (FDRAFT) – This emergence appears to be real, as Lee has played more of a role in the offense lately, shooting 35 times in the last three games and scoring 28.25, 29.25, and 31.25 DK points, and now will play the Nets, which plays fast and bumps up Lee a little more.
Maurice Harkless – POR at PHX – $4,800 (FD), $5,600 (DK), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – Only on FanDuel and only in cash games, where Harkless’ 24 fantasy point efforts gets that 5x you desire there. Evan Turner is expected to miss again, so the game in PHX, which represents a boost for Harkless, and the steady minutes, even if lower usage, gives him the runway to convert value in those FanDuel cash lineups.
Brandon Ingram – LAL vs. PHI – $4,200 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,700 (FDRAFT) – Minutes, minutes, minutes. Ingram gets them in Luke Walton’s “Play the Children” approach to the second half of the season. He has topped 40 in two games in his last five games and 39 in another. He’s still a 0.75 FP/min player, which limits his upside in tourneys, but the cash game floor is there at tough position.
Richaun Holmes – PHI at LAL – $4,600 (FD), $5,200 (DK), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – Holmes has played part time hours, but has produced big in good matchups, especially at his price point on FanDuel. Holmes played 27 minutes against the Clippers and scored 33.80 FD points and has an easier matchup against the Lakers tonight.
Channing Frye – CLE at HOU – $4,400 (FD), $3,900 (DK), $7,700 (FDRAFT) – The temperature may be right to go back to the Frye pool again as the Cavs are on a back to back and Frye played only 16 productive minutes against the Magic Saturday night. Frye’s production has been profound and has a high total (232) game in Houston tonight. The Cavs will need to score to keep up and Frye does that better than Richard Jefferson and the like.
Nene – HOU vs. CLE – $4,400 (FD), $3,600 (DK), $7,100 (FDRAFT) – Houston might need Nene’s size more to go against hefty Tristan Thompson and Nene has been producing over a fantasy point per minutes since the All-Star Break. If he plays the same 24 minutes he gave against Cleveland the last time they played, he is a solid value, especially on DK/FDRAFT.
Ivica Zubac – LAL vs. PHI – $4,000 (FD), $3,800 (DK), $7,400 (FDRAFT) – Tourney only, as nobody’s minutes are more inconsistent than Zubac, who produced at a fantasy point per minute pace when he is in the game. Against Philly and the completely absent defense of Jahlil Okafor, whoever gets the minutes should produce, just nobody on the Lakers does it as efficiently as Zubac, who scored 23.75 DK points in 16 minutes against the Suns last game.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.