NBA Bargains 3/11/17
Happy Saturday all. We have a nice nine-game main slate tonight and some interesting value plays at hand that can help open up some salary for some of the more expensive players in favorable situations. The Warriors have decided to bench most of their starters and many of the players in the starting lineup today are near minimum price. David West sees the biggest boost with a +10.5 percent bump in usage and a +23.1 +/- differential, followed by Ian Clark with a +9.5 percent bump in usage and a +13.8 +/- differential. Zaza Pachulia should also see a boost tonight and already averages over a fantasy point per minute. So this is definitely a spot to target for value. With that said, I will go over some of the other bargains available in tonight’s slate. Let’s jump right into it!
Yogi Ferrell – DAL vs. PHO – $5,200 (DK), $5,200 (FD), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – Ferrell is on a second night of back-to-back, but once again has a good matchup, so I am willing to go back to the well on him. The Suns give up the third most fantasy points per game and have allowed +3.43 points above expectations to point guards. They are also ranked 27th in defensive efficiency and play at the third highest pace. Like I mentioned in yesterday’s article, Ferrell does not provide a ton of upside, but has been producing solid returns in recent games and continues to play big minutes.
Tyler Johnson- MIA vs. TOR – $5,300 (DK), $5,500 (FD), $10,500 (FDRAFT) – Johnson struggled in his last game, but he was dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of the previous game and clearly bothered him against the Hornets. He has had two nights to rest, so barring any setbacks heading into tonight, he should be fine for this matchup. Prior to the last game, he had topped 29 DK points in three consecutive games. Although the Raptors are a good defensive unit and play at a slower pace, Johnson is affordable across the industry and plays a big enough role on this offense to be able to pay off his salary and some.
Gary Harris – DEN at SAC – $5,600 (DK), $5,600 (FD), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – Harris was not all that great on Friday night, but is in a good bounce back spot against the Kings, who are yielding the most fantasy points, most points, and most three-pointers per game to opposing shooting guards. They are also ranked 25th in defensive efficiency. The fact that they give up 3.8 three-pointers per game is good news for Harris, who is averaging 4.4 three point attempts per game this season and is shooting 43 percent from beyond the arc. Harris plays well over 30 minutes per game for Denver and should be able to exploit this matchup, making him an enticing option.
Jeremy Lamb – CHA vs. NO – $3,300 (DK), $3,800 (FD), $6,400 (FDRAFT) – You can make a case for Lamb if you are looking for a punt play at the shooting guard position tonight. He has played at least 22 minutes in each of his last four games and have averaged 11 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.5 rebounds, and roughly 20 fantasy points per game during that stretch. The Pelicans have played at the 11th highest pace over their last 10 games and have allowed +0.65 points above expectations to opposing shooting guards this season. If you are taking a stars and scrubs approach for tonight’s slate, he could be a good fit for you roster.
Tyreke Evans – SAC vs. DEN – $5,400 (DK), $5,900 (FD), $10,600 (FDRAFT) – This is a bit of a sticky situation as he is PG/SF eligible on DK and SG eligible on both FanDuel and Fantasy Draft. That being said, since his price is most enticing on DK, I will write him up at this position. Evans was rested in last night’s contests, so should be fresh in this favorable spot. The Nuggets play up in pace and are ranked dead last in defensive efficiency this season. Over their last 10 games, they have surrendered the seventh most fantasy points per game to the position. While Evans does not play a ton of minutes, he does spot a 27.6 percent usage rate in his last five games and averages 1.12 fantasy points per minutes. He has also exceeded value in six of his last 10 games by an average of 1.98 points.
Terrence Ross – ORL vs. CLE – $5,200 (DK), $4,500 (FD), 10,200 (FDRAFT) – There is certainly risk when rostering Ross because as we saw in his last game, single-digit fantasy points is certainly a possibility. However, that was against a much tougher defense. Tonight he faces the Cavs who are ranked dead last in defensive of efficiency in their last 10 games. They are also yielding the fourth most fantasy points per game and have allowed +2.4 points above expectations to the position. He is a tournament only play and is most appealing on FanDuel where he is below $5,000.
Al-Farouq Aminu – POR vs. WAS – $5,600 (DK), $5,200 (FD), $11,200 – Aminu is coming off of a poor performance where he shot 1-of-7 from the field and scored just two points. Tonight he finds himself in a bounce back spot against Washington who has allowed +3.47 points above expectations to power forwards and are giving up the fourth most fantasy points per game to the position. Since the All-Star break, Aminu is averaging 30.8 minutes, 11 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game. He should capitalize in this favorable situation and bounce back after his poor outing on Thursday.
Willie Cauley-Stein – SAC vs. DEN – $5,000 (DK), $5,200 (FD), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Cauley-Stein is coming off of a big night and gets another favorable matchup. He faces the Nuggets who he has fared well against this season, averaging 20.3 fantasy points per game against them. That may not appear to be all that great, but in their last meeting he played just 28 minutes because he fouled out and scored 19.25 DK points. The meeting before that he played 35 minutes and scored 43.5 DK points. Cauley-Stein is very volatile without a doubt, but at this price point he offers a ton of upside. The one concern I have here is that he played 42 minutes last night.
Cody Zeller – CHA vs. NO – $5,200 (DK), $5,100 (FD), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – The center position is one that I think I will be paying up for tonight as the value is limited. That being said, if I decide to go the cheaper route, I will be looking at Zaza Pachulia or Zeller. He is playing huge minutes for the Hornets right now, averaging 35.7 minutes per game over his last three. The matchup is not one that is appealing, but Zeller has managed to be productive as of late. His affordable price tag makes him very interesting on a night where there are not many cheap appealing centers.
Good luck all – Armando
If you have any questions, you can always reach out to me via Twitter @Armando_marsal or in the Fanvice.com premium slack chat. Also, don’t forget to tune into The Final Countdown on FanVice Live for all the last minute news and analysis.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.