NBA Bargains 3/10/17
We tip off the weekend with a nice eight-game slate. There are several high-priced players to choose from tonight, but in order to fit them in your roster, you will need some affordable plays to free up some salary cap. Below I will go over some of tonight’s bargain options to make that happen, so let’s jump right into it!
Yogi Ferrell – DAL vs. BKN – $5,200 (DK), $5,200 (FD), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – Ferrell does not offer a ton of upside, but since January he has averaged 31.8 minutes per game and gets a favorable matchup. The Nets rank 27th in defensive efficiency over their last 10 games and have played at the third highest pace during that stretch. They are also yielding the most fantasy points per game to point guards and have allowed +2.77 points above expectations. Ferrell has played well in recent games, scoring over 26 fantasy points in two of his last three games.
Cory Joseph- TOR at ATL – $5,200 (DK), $5,000 (FD), $10,500 (FDRAFT) – Here is another point guards who does not offer a ton of upside, but plays big minutes. Joseph is averaging 33.1 minutes per game in his last seven. During that stretch, he has averaged 11.7 points, 4.7 assists, 3.4 rebounds, one steal, and over 23 fantasy points per game. The matchup is one that favors him as the Hawks surrender the seventh most fantasy points per game to point guards and have allowed +3.11 points above expectations to the position. Atlanta is also playing at the 10th fastest pace in their last 10 games. In two meetings against them this season, Joseph is averaging 27.6 DK points and has not scored fewer than 26 fantasy points in any of those contests. It is worth noting that he is SG eligible on DK.
Sean Kilpatrick – BKN at DAL – $5,100 (DK), $4,200 (FD), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – Kilpatrick comes into this contest, averaging over 30 fantasy points per game in his last three. He has drained 10 from beyond the arc during that stretch and has scored at least 20 real points in each of those games. The matchup is not appealing by any means as the Mavs are top 10 in defensive efficiency, but he is just too cheap on sites such as FanDuel and offers 7-8X upside, making him an enticing tournament option.
Otto Porter – WAS at SAC – $6,100 (DK), $5,900 (FD), $12,000 (FDRAFT) – There is no doubt that Porter is a volatile play, so I would only recommend him in tournaments. That being said, he offers nice upside at this price point and could go overlooked tonight. The Kings have given up the third most fantasy points per game to the position over their last five and the second most over their last 10. In the last six games, they have ranked 20th in defensive efficiency. The last time that Porter faced the Kings, he scored over 30 fantasy points in 29.1 minutes.
Trevor Ariza – HOU at CHI – $4,500 (DK), $4,900 (FD), 8,800 (FDRAFT) – Ariza has struggled as of late, but he is still playing 30+ minutes per game and has now scored in double-figures in two consecutive games. Over his last four contests, he has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. His price across the industry is just too low for someone who is on the court as often as he is. If you need some major salary savings, he can make it happen.
Gorgui Dieng– MIN vs. GS – $5,200 (DK), $5,600 (FD), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – The Timberwolves host the Warriors tonight in a game where they will play at a faster pace than they normally do. Golden State plays at the second fast pace in the league, which should create some extra touch opportunities for Dieng. He has double-digit rebounds in three of his last five games and has come down with fewer than nine boards in a game just once during that stretch. He has also topped 30 fantasy points in three of his last five contests. The Warriors have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards over their last 10 games, as well as, the most rebounds per game to the position. While Dieng does not offer immense upside, he should be able to pay off his salary in this matchup.
Dirk Nowitzki – DAL vs. BKN – $6,100 (DK), $6,200 (FD), $12,000 – This may not be the best price tag, but Nowitzki is still affordable across the industry and gets a great matchup. The Nets yield the second most fantasy points, third most points, and second most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards. Brooklyn is also ranked 28th in defensive efficiency this season and is allowing the second most rebounds per game to opposing teams with a -3.6 differential. Since returning from the All-Star break, Dirk is averaging 27.7 minutes, 14 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.1 three-pointers per game. He has four double-doubles in his last five games and has scored at least 18 points in two consecutive games.
Al Horford – BOS at DEN – $5,600 (DK), $6,000 (FD), $11,100 (FDRAFT) – Horford returned on Wednesday after missing two games with an elbow injury and scored 10 points with six rebounds, six assists, and two steals, which was good for 30.5 DK points. Tonight he faces off against the Nuggets who have given up the most points to centers in their last 10 games and could be without Nikola Jokic. Denver also gives up the second most three-pointers per game to opposing bigs, which bodes well for Horford who has 71 three-pointers this season. Although he has struggled as of late, this is a nice paced up spot to get back on track and the price is just too cheap, especially on DK.
Robin Lopez – CHI vs. HOU – $4,500 (DK), $4,800 (FD), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – The Rockets allow the third most fantasy points, second most points, and third most blocks per game to opposing centers, while allowing a 58 field goal percentage. Lopez grabbed 11 rebounds the last time he faced off against Houston and topped 25 fantasy points. He has turned it up offensively in recent games, scoring double-digit points in eight consecutive games and in nine of his last 10. This should be an up in pace contest and Lopez should have plenty of rebounding opportunities.
Nerlens Noel – DAL vs. BKN – $5,700 (DK), $6,100 (FD), $11,300 (FDRAFT) – There is definitely risk involved when rostering Noel due to the lack of consistent minutes, however, if he plays 25+ minutes tonight, he will be in a good position for a big game. Noel averages 1.1 fantasy points per minute and offers a very nice ceiling for someone at this price range. He gets a great matchup against the Nets who are atrocious defensively and will be without Brook Lopez.
Center Note: Mason Plumlee will be in play if Nikola Jokic sits tonight’s game out, so it is definitely worth monitoring throughout the day.
Good luck all – Armando
If you have any questions, you can always reach out to me via Twitter @Armando_marsal or in the Fanvice.com premium slack chat. Also, don’t forget to tune into The Final Countdown on FanVice Live for all the last minute news and analysis.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.