NBA Bargains 2/28/17
Happy Tuesday! Let us look at the games from a steady six-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice articles/shows for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Ish Smith – DET vs. POR – $4,400 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Once in four games, Stan Van Gundy will forget why he benched Reggie Jackson in the first place and give him 30 minutes, and the Pistons lose. My prediction is that SVG remembers that Jackson succeeds only at the detriment of the team, and Ish will be back in the mid to high 20s in minutes in a solid matchup at home.
Jamal Murray – DEN at CHI – $3,500 (FD), $3,800 (DK), $7,400 (FDRAFT) – Nice total in this game (221, CHI -3.5) and while Murray is only getting 18-22 minutes, his usage is consistently in the 20s. So, in tourneys, if he gets loose for more minutes due to foul trouble, blowout, etc, he will be the one jacking shots against the Bulls.
Jeremy Lamb – CHA at LAL – $4,100 (FD), $3,400 (DK), $6,600 (FDRAFT) – Like Jamal Murray above, Lamb is a high usage player when on the floor. Do not chase his mid 30s minutes performance against the Clippers – it was an OT game and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist fouled out, leaving Lamb with a lot of minutes. Instead, bank on 20-22 minutes and go for the big upside that Lamb can bring. Tourneys only.
Tony Allen – MEM vs. PHX – $4,600 (FD), $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FDRAFT) – Allen is cash game play as he lacks the upside for tourneys at this price, but he has delivered performances of between 26 and 31.25 points consistently in the last five games he has received more than 20 minutes. Against a strong backcourt in Phoenix, a home game and a 211 game total, Allen is a nice play.
Brandon Ingram – LAL vs. CHA – $4,000 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $8,300 (DRAFT) – Another cash game play as Ingram’s Fantasy Point per Minute rate is well below 1.0, Ingram has played 38 and 35 minutes the last two games.
Maurice Harkless – POR at DET – $4,700 (FD), $4,800 (DK), $9,400 (FDRAFT) – Lower usage than I would like to see, but with Evan Turner out, and even with Al Farouq-Aminu in, Harkless is playing 35+ minutes, making him a cash game play in a low ceiling game against the tough Detroit defense.
Nikola Mirotic – CHI vs. DEN – $4,400 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – 36 and 29 minutes played the last two games after Doug McDermott was sent packing to OKC. Trap? Maybe. We have certainly been burned before banking on Mirotic’s outside game and minutes from Fred Hoiberg. This is a tremendous matchup, though, as the Nuggets are the seventh worst defensive team over the last five games and also a pace up game for Mirotic and the Bulls.
Jon Leuer – DET vs. POR – $4,600 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Previous to the Reggie Jackson led debacle against the Celtics, Leuer had played 36, 34 and 41 minutes and is a great cash game option against the porous defense of the Portland frontcourt.
Ivica Zubac – LAL vs. CHA – $3,600 (FD), $3,600 (DK), $7,100 (FDRAFT) – The play I am most excited about and will take all my restraint to keep my usual exposure limits on tourney plays like Zubac. Luke Walton wants to give him more run with the first unit, which should raise his production. The matchup against Frank Kaminsky is really good as well. He scored 27.50 DK points in an extended run (26 minutes) against OKC like he is looking to have here at home against Charlotte.
Robin Lopez – CHI vs. DEN – $4,800 (FD), $4,400 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Have to love playing bigs against Denver, as mentioned in Mirotic’s blurb above. Lopez had scored 31.50 and 28.50 in the two games prior to his latest, a low minute output in Cleveland. He is back home in Chicago and the Nuggets are a bad defense team. Bon appetite.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.