NBA Bargains 2/27/17
Happy Monday! Let us look at the games from this sweetspot seven-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5.5K on FanDuel and 5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice articles/shows for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Cory Joseph – TOR at NYK – $4,400 (FD), $5,200 (DK), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – Kyle Lowry is questionable again, so if Joseph gets the start once more for Lowry, he is in play. This is really, however, a FanDuel only play as his priced jump significantly enough to fade him on DK/FDRAFT even if he starts. 35 DK/FDRAFT points is a little much for a guy who got benched for Fred Van Fleet not too long ago.
Ty Lawson – SAC vs. MIN – $4,800 (FD), $4,000 (DK), $7,800 (FDRAFT) – Nice matchup with the Timberwolves here, at home, and the value landscape is barren to the point where Lawson’s 22-25 minutes looks good here. Additionally, Lawson will use 18-20% of possessions when on the court, helping his upside there.
Gerald Henderson – PHI vs. GSW – $3,700 (FD), $3,400 (DK), $6,700 (FDRAFT) – Every time I try to count on Henderson to play 26-30 minutes, it is a random benching for him, but still, we have to trust what we see here, and that is in the last two games, Henderson has played 31 and 29 minutes in tight games, using over 20% of possessions in that span, on his way to 46 DK points over those two contests. Huge pace game here as both PHI and GS are in the top four in pace over the last four games.
Monta Ellis – IND at HOU – $4,800 (FD), $4,000 (DK), $7,800 (FDRAFT) – Has settled into the 25-31 minute, 21-28 DK point play that gets a pace bump playing the Rockets, who are third in pace over the last five games.
Taurean Prince – ATL at BOS – $3,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – There is almost zero value, as it stands as of this writing, at small forward. If you had to roster as of this morning, pay up. However, if you are in a tourney and wanting to go very offbeat, consider the min priced Prince, who has seen 25+ minutes in three of the last four Hawks games, of which is included Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore. Prince has a versatile game, can hit threes and rebound like crazy. He has hustle, like Bazemore, but also size. Against a similarly rostered Boston team, Prince could see that same 25 minutes and the 20-25 fantasy points that would come with it. A one out of 20 lineup play, but a sneaky one just the same.
Jaylen Brown – BOS vs. ATL – $3,600 (FD), $3,900 (DK), $7,700 (FDRAFT) – As long as Avery Bradley and Gerald Green are still out, then Brown can be considered here due to his playing time in recent game exceeding 25 minutes and the decent production (26.40, 19 and 20.50 DK points) we have seen from him. The same caveats apply as it did with Prince above. Pay up at small forward unless value emerges.
Willie Cauley-Stein – SAC vs. MIN – $5,200 (FD), $5,100 (DK-C), $10,100 (FDRAFT)– WCS lost time due to blowout against the Hornets, which is why Skal Labissiere got so many minutes, most of them were garbage time. WCS still has the upside, due to his peripherals, to make value if he can get more than the zero FG he managed against CHA.
Thaddeus Young – IND at HOU – $5,400 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,700 (FDRAFT) – Huge pace up game for the last in pace over the last five games Pacers, and Young is back and playing 25-30 minutes per game. Playing against Ryan Anderson should allow Young to score more than the one basket he got in the blowout against Miami.
Zaza Pachulia -GSW at PHI – $4,500 (FD), $3,900 (DK), $7,700 (FDRAFT) – Pachulia is back to his 18-23 minute ways and gets enough loose change, rebounds and blocks to make a 22-25 fantasy point game work for his salary.
Kelly Olynyk – BOS vs. ATL – $4,700 (FD), $4,700 (DK), $9,200 (FDRAFT) – Olynyk’s last game against Atlanta and Dwight Howard, he turned in a 31 minutes, 9-11 FG, 4-5 3-pt shot effort, ending the night with 44.50 DK points. It does not mean Brad Stevens will automatically go this route again, but it shows Olynyk’s efficiency in this matchup.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.