NBA Bargains 2/14/17

Happy Valentine’s Day! Let us look at the games from this pre-AS Break 3-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5K on FanDuel and 5.5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!

NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.

Point Guards

Michael Carter-Williams – CHI vs. TOR – $4,600 (FD-SG), $5,200 (DK), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – He’s frustrating, but with Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade, Paul Zipser and Nikola Mirotic all doubtful tonight, MCW will take his role as possessions user (31 percent raw usage over 29 minutes) as he did in Minnesota, where he scored 31.25 DK points. He is shooting guard eligible on FanDuel, maybe making him the best value play overall on FD today.

Shooting Guards

Jordan Clarkson – LAL vs. SAC – $4,500 (FD – PG), $3,700 (DK), $7,400 (FDRAFT) – Caveat here for Clarkson, and for Lou Williams as well, Luke Walton has gone back to the “give the younger starters more time” and has cut the backup guard tandem back down to around 20 minutes per game. However, that could change at any moment, as it did before, and this game against SAC is a 217.5 game total. Clarkson, unlike Lou, is inexpensive enough to make tourney value on FDRAFT and DK at 25 minutes and his usual mid 20s raw usage rate.

Nick Young – LAL vs. SAC – $4,600 (FD), $4,300 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – Here, however, is a starter, and Young has been getting 28-30 minutes as a part of the first shift. Young scored 37.40 FD points against Milwaukee in his last game but his floor is so low he still has to be considered tourney only.

 

Small Forwards

DeMarre Carroll – TOR at CHI – $4,200 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – My guess here is that, on this back to back before the AS break, Toronto decides to go for the win against a depleted Bulls team and then gives Norman Powell and Terrance Ross more run at home. That would mean Carroll would get his usual 28-32 minutes here and have a lot of success against the supposed defense of Doug McDermott. Carroll has 31, 22, 34 and 36 minutes in his last four games, scoring 31.25, 18.25, 35.25 and 24.50 DK points in those games.

Matt Barnes – SAC at LAL – $5,100 (FD), $5,100 (DK), $10,100 (FDRAFT) – Cash game minutes safety as Barnes has used the Ty Lawson injury, on top of the Rudy Gay/Omri Casspi injuries, to maintain a steady supply of 30+ minute efforts. In doing so, Barnes has maintained a 25-35 fantasy point output since the injuries.

Power Forwards

Bobby Portis – CHI vs. TOR – $3,600 (FD), $3,500 (DK), $7,000 (FDRAFT) – Free Bobby Portis. This is a risky play here because the 30+ minutes he received last time was, of course, with all of the above Bulls missing but also with some “foul trouble” from Taj Gibson that pushed Portis’ minutes higher. With the Raptors being a little bigger up front, we could see more Portis anyway, but figure the minutes to be closer to the mid 20s – still a value at this price, but the floor is lower.

Larry Nance – LAL vs. SAC – $4,300 (FD), $4,000 (DK), $7,800 (FDRAFT) – Nance has gotten some serious minutes lately and this is a good matchup, but the warning is that Julius Randle is back and taking more minutes and Nance’s production has been buffeted by either a high free throw rate game or larger than normal rebounding market shares. However, that he does have such spikes is a tournament reason to consider him, especially with any other front court news breaking, potentially.

Centers:

Ivica Zubac – LAL vs. SAC – $3,900 (FD), $3,800 (DK), $7,600 (FDRAFT) – He is coming off the bench behind Tarik Black, so that must be considered here as a tourney play. However, his usage (19% for the season, with game spikes into the high 20s/low 30s) and production coming off said bench (fantasy point per minute player this season) is completely playable.

Tarik Black – LAL vs. SAC – $4,200 (FD), $3,900 (DK), $7,700 (FDRAFT) – Here is your cash game alternative. Black starts and gets between 20-25 minutes, scoring 0.90 fantasy points per minute. This has put his recent output into the 23-26 fantasy point range fairly consistently and they will need his size to combat DeMarcus Cousins tonight.

Good luck, players! – JW

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.