NBA Bargains 2/13/17
Happy Monday! Let us look at the games from this heavy 11-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting at/below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5K on FanDuel and 5.5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
TJ McConnell – PHI at CHA – $5,500 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – McConnell is averaging 89 touches per game over the last five games, scoring 32 and 33.80 FD points in his last two games. The Hornets have picked up the pace in the last five games, ranking seventh in possessions per game over that span and the Sixers are fifth, making the 212 game total seems very reasonable.
Deron Williams – DAL vs. BOS – $6,000 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Tourney play only here, and you would definitely want to hedge your exposure on him (two out of ten lineups, for example). The reason is that Williams only played the first half his first game back from injury. They expect he will get more minutes in this game against Boston, and Williams fought to play more in his last game, claiming good endurance and felt great. If he does play more, his low 20s usage rate and very low price on DK/FDRAFT in a game that should be close and has a 208 number, makes him a tremendous value.
Tyreke Evans – NOP at PHX – $4,500 (FD), $4,300 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – On the front end of a back to back, Evans played only 14 minutes and still scored over a fantasy point per minute. He should get closer to 20-25 minutes tonight and has a sweet matchup against PHX (221 game total).
Marco Belinelli – CHA vs. PHI – $4,000 (FD-SF), $3,700 (DK), $7,400 (FDRAFT) – Great, higher paced game, Belinelli has received over 10 shots per game over his last four games and has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game over that span, putting him in excellent position to get over 3x on FDRAFT tonight.
Chandler Parsons – MEM at BKN – $3,600 (FD), $3,500 (DK), $6,900 (FDRAFT) – Parsons had a scheduled rest day against Golden State, but is expected to play against Brooklyn, a matchup with a 210.5 total. Parsons, if playing, will only see 24-25 minutes, but could easily post a fantasy point per minute in this matchup, like the production he had against Phoenix recently.
Bojan Bogdanovic – BKN vs. MEM – $4,500 (FD), $4,300 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – Steady high 20s minutes and low 20s% usage in a higher total game, Bogdanovic is a tourney only play due to his volatile outcome range if his shot is/is not falling. Last four games: 18.75, 29.75, 37.75, 17.50 to underline that characteristic.
Frank Kaminsky – CHA vs. PHI – $4,800 (FD), $5,700 (DK), $11,200 (FDRAFT) – FanDuel only value play here, as Cody Zeller is out, we have established the pace/production in this game and Kaminsky is coming off of a 45 DK point outing as the starting center.
Ed Davis – POR vs. ATL – $3,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK – C), $6,000 (FDRAFT) – With Mason Plumlee traded and Jusuf Nurkic not available yet, Davis stands to gain at last mid 20s minutes against the Hawks and is min priced across the industry in a 217 game total. Two caveats with Davis. One is that he fouls a lot and will have to deal with Paul Millsap and/or Dwight Howard. Two is that there is no guarantee that Terry Stotts will automatically go to Davis as long as Stotts favorite Meyers Leonard is around and current PF starter Noah Vonleh is playing. So tourney only and do not go all in here.
Greg Monroe – MIL vs. DET – $5,800 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,700 (FDRAFT) – Monroe in a revenge game against Andre Drummond? Sure! Monroe already put up 34+ FDRAFT points in the last matchup and Monroe is still getting his mid 20s minutes from Jason Kidd, so fire him up as a value center on DK/FDRAFT tonight.
Dewayne Dedmon – SAS at IND- $4,400 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Dedmon let down yesterday, but Pop limited his minutes on the front end of a back to back. He has the 26-30 fantasy point upside to be a cash game value center in a 205.5 total with some turnover heavy front court guys in Indiana.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.