NBA Bargains 2/12/17
Happy Sunday! Let us look at the games from this tidy four-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am targeting below 10K on Fantasy Draft, 5K on FanDuel and 5.5K on DraftKings. LET’S DO THIS!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Brandon Jennings – NYK vs. SAS – $5,100 (FD), $4,400 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – Jennings played 39 minutes in a surprise start against Denver, so make sure his role in this game before heavy exposure. But if he is starting again, even against San Antonio, his $4,400 salary on DraftKings is tremendous given his 98 touches in 39 minutes.
Tony Parker – SAS at NYK – $4,500 (FD), $4,100 (DK), $8,100 (FDRAFT) – Last three games for Parker has resulted in 31, 30 and 29 minutes. He now gets the gracious defense of the New York Knicks, who are the fifth worst defense over the last five games and the 11th fastest paced team. Parker has been in the low 20s in raw usage and on those games where he hasn’t fired up a bunch of shots, he has replaced it with six assist and 12 assist games.
Tyreke Evans – NOP at SAC – $4,500 (FD), $4,100 (DK), $8,000 (FDRAFT) – Probable to play tonight, Evans should see something close to the 27 minutes he played in Washington, where he scored 26.50 DK points. Evans also enjoyed 34% raw usage in that game and with no E’Twaun Moore (doubtful) tonight, ‘Reke has a clear path to the 24 FDraft points he will need to make solid value for you.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – DET at TOR – $5,100 (FD), $5,200 (DK), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – Just on the value cusp here, KCP is the minutes leader down here, consistently logging his mid 30s minutes in non-blowout games. It is a tougher matchup for KCP, but in cash games, the minutes provide a solid floor in the value range tonight.
DeMarre Carroll – TOR vs. DET – $4,100 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – It is an island game for DeMarre and the Raptors, so I would expect his minutes, especially against a similarly matched team like the Pistons, to be more in the low 30s than low 20s, making DeMarre a feasible tournament target here, given his 30-32 fantasy point output in such games.
Marcus Morris – DET at TOR – $5,700 (FD), $5,100 (DK), $10,200 (FDRAFT) – Cash game value play on DK and FDRAFT, Morris will get his minutes and has taken at least 10 shots in all but one game since January 1st. The total is surprisingly high at 211.5, and the Pistons cut of that projected total is over 102.
Jon Leuer – DET at TOR – $4,800 (FD), $4,300 (DK), $8,400 (FDRAFT) – Clean sweep for the Pistons here, but it makes sense to highlight Leuer after having 34 minutes in back to back games and seeing his price down to 8.4K on FDraft and 4.3K on DK. Leuer makes for a cash game floor given those minutes and a fair matchup against the Raptors.
Gorgui Dieng – MIN vs. CHI – $5,500 (FD), $5,000 (DK), $9,800 (FDRAFT) – Cash game solid, Dieng is going to finish around 25-30 fantasy points in his 30-33 minutes on the court. The Bulls have the 10th worst defense over the last five games and may be without Jimmy Butler again, making that even worse.
Robin Lopez – CHI at MIN – $4,900 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDRAFT) – RoLo has been solid at 30 minutes against teams with strategic offensive centers, and even got 29 against the Warriors. This game will need Lopez and his 30-32 tourney value point on all sites is in range here. Lopez’s raw usage in the last three games have been 23.8, 28.8 and 21.3% and is a double double threat here for bonus point sites.
Dewayne Dedmon – SAS at NYK – $4,800 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $9,100 (FDRAFT) – So tough to choose between Dedmon and Kyle O’Quinn, so consider Dedmon your cash game option and O’Quinn the crazy tourney play. Dedmon has locked in the center minutes for San Antonio, with 27, 26 and 31 his last three games, where he has delivered 16.40, 29.70 and 40.40 FanDuel points in those efforts. The Knicks defense has already been identified as poor, and the Knicks give up the sixth most rebounds per game this season, fourth most over the last five games.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.