NBA Bargains 2/11/17
We tip off the weekend with a nice seven-game main slate. There are several players who are fairly priced, in good matchups, that will help fit in some of the more expensive options into our lineups, so let’s jump right into it and go over some of tonight’s bargains.
Patrick Beverley – Beverley is in a very good spot tonight against the Suns, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency and play at one of the fastest paces in the league. Point guards are averaging 25.4 points per game against them, which is the most in the league. Beverley is not a high usage player (13.9 percent usage rate), however, he does account for 19.4 percent of the assists and 10.4 percent of the rebounds for Houston. He has fared well against Phoenix this season, averaging 14.5 points, eight rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and over 35 fantasy points per game against them. While he can certainly be frustrating to own, this should be one of those good Pat Bev nights.
T.J. McConnell – Over the last 10 games, McConnell has averaged 30.4 minutes, nine points, 7.4 assists, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game. During that stretch, he has topped 30 fantasy points five times and has scored fewer than 20 fantasy points just once (DK scoring). The Heat are ranked sixth in defensive efficiency, but Goran Dragic is far from a great defender, so this is a solid matchup for McConnell. He is not a high volume shooter, but does help with his peripherals. His minutes have been consistent as of late and so has his production, therefore, he is enticing at a fair price on most sites.
Victor Oladipo – The price has increased, but Oladipo is still not at a price point where avoiding him is a must. The Thunder take on the Warriors tonight, in what should be a fast paced and high scoring game. Vegas currently has this contest at a 226 over/under with just a seven point spread, so it should stay close. In two games against Golden State this season, he has averaged 20.5 points, two steals, three boards, four three-pointers, and over 30 fantasy points per game. Oladipo has displayed his explosiveness in recent games, topping 40 fantasy points twice in the last three games, including a 50 burger. This is a favorable situation and one he should fare well in.
T.J. Warren – Alright, let’s try this one more time. On Wednesday I recommended Warren and that did not pan out as planned, but I am going back to the well tonight. If you look at his recent games, he has played more than 30 minutes in four of his last five. In fact, the only game he did not see big minutes during that stretch was against the Grizzlies. Tonight the Suns face off against the Rockets who play up in pace and yield the ninth most fantasy points per game to the position. Warren should see significant minutes in this one, putting himself in a good spot to smash value at his low price across the industry. There is definitely risk when rostering him, but also plenty of upside.
C.J. Miles – Miles is coming off of a terrible game where he shot 1-of-6 and scored fewer than 10 fantasy points. Despite his awful outing last night, he has exceeded expectations in seven of his last 10 games by an average of 1.57 points. The last time that Miles played against Milwaukee, he topped 30 fantasy points. This is a good spot to bounce back against the Bucks as they surrender +3.35 points above expectations to the position. He is shooting guard eligible on DraftKings which is a plus.
Trevor Ariza – Ariza has had two consecutive strong performances and looks to make it a third. He faces off against the Suns who rank 28th in defensive efficiency and play up in pace. Phoenix has allowed +1.03 points above expectations to small forwards and are yielding the eighth most fantasy points per game to the position. Ariza continues to play big minutes for the Rockets and barring a blowout, that should not change tonight. He is much more enticing on a site like FanDuel where he is $5,500.
James Johnson – Johnson is coming off of a huge night and continues to play good basketball for the Heat. Dion Waiters could miss another game tonight, which should bump up Johnson’s usage. Over his last 10 games, Johnson has exceeded value 60 percent of the time by an average of 5.23 points. He has displayed his 40+ fantasy point upside several times during that stretch. The one downside is his price, as it is not easy paying mid-level salary for someone coming off of the bench. That being said, he continues to provide a good ROI and makes for an interesting tournament play.
Ryan Anderson – Anderson has been in a funk as of late, but this is a good spot to snap out of it. The Suns are giving up the fourth most fantasy points per game to power forwards, while allowing +1.41 points above expectations to the position. Despite the lack of efficiency, Anderson is still playing upwards of 30 minutes per game in his last nine. His $4,700 price tag on FanDuel is just too low to ignore for someone that offers the upside he does. While he is extremely volatile, he can pop off for 40+ fantasy points on any given night and provide huge returns. Tournament play only!
Steven Adams – Adams has played over 36 minutes in four consecutive games and is averaging over 32 fantasy points per game during that stretch. In those games, he has averaged 14.5 points, 12 rebounds, 1.5 assists, one steal, and 1.3 blocks per game. He is currently second in the league with 82 percent of his points coming in the paint, which is good as the Warriors allow the 10th most points in the paint per game. While he is not the best value on the board by any means, he is affordable and has the potential to outperform his salary.
Clint Capela – Capela is off to good start in the month of February, averaging 29.3 minutes, 16 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals, one block, and over 29 fantasy points per game. Tonight he faces off against the Suns who are yielding the eighth most fantasy points per game to centers and have allowed +2.92 points above expectations to the position. Tyson Chandler left Friday’s game with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for tonight’s game, so there is a chance that the Suns could be without their big man, favoring Capela. He is much more intriguing on FanDuel where he is just $5,300, but makes for a fine play on DK as well.
If you have any questions, you can always reach out to me via Twitter @Armando_marsal or in the Fanvice.com premium slack chat. Also, don’t forget to tune into The Final Countdown on FanVice Live for all the last minute news and analysis.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.