NBA Bargains –1/8/17
Happy Sunday! Let us look at the healthy all-day slate for today and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am going to keep these under the $5,000 line for FanDuel (FD) and/or DraftKings (DK). Let’s go!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Darren Collison – SAC vs. GSW – $4,500 (FD), $4,700 (DK) – Can hardly be trusted, but gets the high total, home game and recent run of 30+ minute games, the last one 34 minutes in a start against Chris Paul and the Clippers, means the light is green for value here.
Isaiah Whitehead – BKN vs. PHI – $3,600 (FD), $3,600 (DK) – Certainly hope more value opens up throughout the day that will replace this call, but Whitehead has played over 30 minutes twice in three games and delivered 22.50 and 28.50 DK points in those two games. The Nets now play the Sixers in a game that is forecasted to be tight (Nets -2.5) with a significant total (214.5).
Terrence Ross – TOR vs. HOU – $3,900 (DK), $4,100 (FD – SF) – DeMarre Carroll played 41 minutes Saturday night and will likely see considerably less against Houston on the back end of a back to back. Enter Ross, who should take advantage of the 10+ three-points shots Rockets opponents make per game over the last ten games.
Sean Kilpatrick – BKN vs. PHI – $4,300 (FD), $5,300 (DK) – Very much a tournament, FanDuel only play here, as the Nets are “monitoring minutes” of their entire roster right now. Kilpatrick, who averages low 20%s raw usage, played sparingly against Cleveland but should be back in line for his usual 25-28 minutes tonight in this plum matchup against Philadelphia.
Aaron Gordon – ORL at LAL – $4,800 (FD), $5,600 (DK) – Another FanDuel only value here, I love the matchup for the athletic Gordon against this young Lakers team that ranks fourth worst in defense over the last 10 games. In a similar matchup against Houston, Gordon logged a 35.70 FD points game and 38.20 in 31 minutes against the Knicks.
Matt Barnes – SAC at DEN – $3,800 (FD), $3,900 (DK) – Against Golden State, Sacramento is going to have to go small and that usually means 30 minutes or more for Barnes against one of his many ex-teams. He’s getting between .75 and .80 fantasy points per minutes, so a 30-34 minute run here in a very pacy game with a 222.5 total puts Barnes in a nice value spot here.
Derrick Favors – UTA at MEM – $4,300 (FD) – Still too low, even in a tough matchup. Stay close to the news here, however, as Favors unexpectedly played 34 minutes against Minnesota Saturday night and may see a reduction in minutes in this game as a result. If not, Favors put up 33.70 FD points Saturday and even against a tougher Memphis matchup, he has clearly shown his production is back up to his par levels.
Markieff Morris – WAS at MIL – $4,900 (FD), $5,000 (DK) – Always a tourney play due to his personal and production volatility, it is a good matchup here in Milwaukee, with a solid 213 game total and Morris getting 32 minutes or more in two of his last three games.
Lucas “Bebe” Nogueira – TOR vs. HOU – $3,600 (FD), $3,400 (DK) – Bebe has been filling in nicely for Patrick Patterson, who is questionable for today, so check the updates before rocking Nogueira one more time. If he is starting again, he’ll grab you the rebounds, blocks and steals you’ll need to hit value here in this 224.5 game total.
Timofey Mozgov – LAL vs. ORL – $3,500 (FD), $3,100 (DK) – Min priced for Mozzy, who will likely see 25-28 minutes against the larger Orlando frontcourt. Mozgov played 25 against the Magic in Orlando and has typically seen more time against teams that remain big in the frontcourt throughout the game.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.