NBA Bargains –1/3/17
Happy Tuesday! Let us look at the healthy eight-game slate for today and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am going to keep these under the $5,000 line for FanDuel (FD) and/or DraftKings (DK) and $9,000 on FantasyDraft (FDA). Let’s go!
NOTE: There are a number of players listed as “questionable” for tonight’s games – stay tuned to FanVice Live this afternoon for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
T.J. McConnell – PHI vs. MIN – $4,300 (FD), $4,600 (DK), $8,500 (FDA) – Price is rising a little in his extra playing time without Sergio Rodriguez (doubtful tonight), but in a slightly positive matchup against Ricky Rubio and a home game with Joel Embiid.
Darren Collison – SAC at DEN – $4,100 (FD), $4,500 (DK), $8,800 (FDA) – Watch the injury news here on Ty Lawson, who suffered something called a non-displaced maxillary sinus fracture over the weekend and is questionable tonight in Denver. If he does not play, Collison gets bumped to 30-32 minutes status against a Denver defense which has been weak against point guards this season.
Gary Harris – DEN vs. SAC – $4,700 (FD), $4,700 (DK), $9,200 (FDA) – Tales as old as time…..targeting shooting guards against the Kings has been a profitable venture this past two seasons. This season, they are adding 8%+ to opposing SG efforts and Harris gets the rare 30+ minute lock-in with Michael Malone.
Seth Curry – DAL vs. WAS – $4,300 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $8,400 (FDA) – Another injury watch as Deron Williams is questionable with illness leading up to the game tonight. If Williams is out, along with the extended absence of JJ Barea, Curry’s minutes and raw usage go up, with usage rising to 23% with those two off the court.
Jae Crowder – BOS vs. UTA – $5,000 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,800 (FDA) – Looking more at SF on DraftKings here, the Utah disadvantage is mitigated somewhat by having that built into his price and it is a home game for Boston. Hayward is going to have a lot of usage for Utah, giving Crowder more chances for steals and he will get 30+ minutes for this sub-5K price tag.
Matt Barnes – SAC at DEN – $3,800 (FD), $4,200 (DK), $8,400 (FDA) – With Lawson, Arron Afflalo and Rudy Gay all looking at missing this game, it would bump Barnes to a mid 30s minute projection and a 27-30 fantasy point night.
Jon Leuer – DET vs. IND – $4,800 (FD), $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FDA) – Indiana has been very kind to opposing power forwards and Leuer is getting 30-32 minutes and four shifts in a tight game here against said defense. Leuer is coming off a stinker against the Heat on New Year’s Day, but had scored 36, 24.25 and 25.75 prior to that.
Thomas Robinson – LAL vs. MEM – $4,000 (FD), $3,400 (DK), $6,700 (FDA) – With Larry Nance still out, all it would take is a little bit of Julius Randle foul trouble to get Tommy Rob on the court for 22-25 minutes. His production has been tremendous when on the floor, scoring 49 DK points in 36 minutes over the last two games.
Jonas Valanciunas – TOR at SAS – $5,400 (FD), $4,800 (DK), $9,500 (FDA) – Another mainly DraftKings play here, but the Spurs are just the kind of team that Jonas can get minutes against because they will not be running, they do have another big to defend in Pau Gasol and the game projects to be a healthy 210 game total and the Spurs are only six point favorites at home. With JoVal being a fantasy point per minutes player, 30-32 minutes gives him excellent value at his price.
Willie Reed – MIA at PHX – $3,500 (FD), $3,900 (DK), $7,700 (FDA) – Heat coach Eric Spoelstra tried to leave Willie on the bench late in the game against Andre Drummond and the Pistons center unloaded as the Heat folded down the stretch. It is not wise to lock in mid 30s minutes for Reed, but this matchup is a positive and with Whiteside out for an extended run, they will need to stretch Reed more in the middle to compensate.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.