NBA Bargains 1/27/17
Happy Friday! Let us look at the games from this full-fledged ten-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am going to keep these under the $5,000(ish) line for FanDuel (FD) and DraftKings (DK) and $9,000 for FantasyDraft (FRDA). Let’s go!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Matthew Dellavedova – MIL at TOR – Delly Time has been logging the minutes (35, 31, 29 in his last three games) and should get extended run here to put the brakes on either Kyle Lowry or Norman Powell, with DeMar DeRozan out. A 34-35 minute outing will put the reckless Bucks guard in good shape to make value at his $3,900 salary on FanDuel tonight.
Spencer Dinwiddie – BKN at CLE – If you need PG relief on DraftKings, it is a little more difficult, but consider Dinwiddie, who is a pace beneficiary of the Nets style of play and has received 31.65 and 32.83 minutes the last two games. He is $3,400 on DK, and his matchup against Cleveland is good, considering the Kyrie defense factor and that the Cavs are the ninth worst defense over the last ten games and third worst over the last three.
Norman Powell – TOR vs. MIL – The Bucks are the second worst defense over the last ten games and Powell has stepped in, as expected, to fill the large usage gap from DeMar DeRozan’s absence. Powell has used 24-25% of possessions in the last two games and has scored 62.75 DK points in those two games. His price has gone up to $4,600 on DK, but that only means he will not be chalk, as he can get the 33 points you need there (and especially so on FanDuel ($4,200) and FDraft ($7,100)) to be a great tourney value.
Garrett Temple – SAC at IND – With Rudy Gay out for the season, DeMarcus Cousins has erupted for over 40% raw usage, but Temple has also benefitted, getting over 30 minutes his last four games and landing in the mid 20s in fantasy scoring every game. More of a cash game bargain play here, since the ceiling is not high, but the floor looks solid.
Sam Dekker – HOU at PHI – The Rockets have figured out that Sam Dekker fits the spacing scheme of the Rockets offense very well and he has generated a lot of shot volume because of this. In his last five games, Dekker has averaged 17.3 shot attempts per 36 minutes, a higher rate than James Harden. With Eric Gordon doubtful, Dekker stands to get his shot volume in tonight. Also very reasonable on FDraft at $7,400.
Wayne Ellington – MIA at CHI – Ellington will likely not see Jimmy Butler, as the defensive stalwart will probably tackle Dion Waiters. Ellington is listed at SF on DraftKings and is near his value ceiling at $4,300, but with Josh Richardson and Tyler Johnson out and Justise Winslow out for the season, there is enough shot volume here to make it work.
Ryan Anderson – HOU at PHI – Anderson is coming off of a 35.63 minute, 26.50 FanDuel point night against Boston and has a nice 220 game total to play with here. With Gordon out this season, Anderson has seen his scoring rise by 6.3 DK points per game, averaging nearly 30 per game overall.
Quincy Acy – BKN at CLE – Trevor Booker is out, so Acy will get more run tonight as the rotation changes. In the two games as a Net that Acy has played close to the likely 20 minutes he is looking at here, he has scored 23.50 and 28 DK points. He is priced at the rock bottom minimum tonight and should get to the 25 he needs for tourney value if he gets to the 20 minute mark tonight.
Willie Reed – MIA at CHI – Hassan Whiteside labored with a sore ankle against Brooklyn and is now out for this game. Reed becomes a tremendous play against a giving Bulls frontcourt. Reed had two huge games in relief of Whiteside earlier this month and has maintained his fantasy point per game average even off the bench.
Lucas Nogueira – TOR vs. MIL – The Bucks are a terrible defensive team and live to drive to the hoop. Toronto has been finding mid 20s minutes even with Patrick Patterson in the lineup, so Bebe’s mid 20s fantasy scoring is in play here tonight, especially on FD where he is $3,900.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.