NBA Bargains 1/25/17
We have reached mid-week and have a nice 10-game slate at hand with some affordable options that can open up some salary relief in order to fit in some of the higher priced players, so let’s jump right into it and go over some of tonight’s bargains.
Patrick Beverley – Beverley has cooled down a bit, after a nice three-game stretch with at least 27 fantasy points. However, he has still been productive and has not scored fewer than 21 fantasy points in six consecutive games. Tonight he faces off against the Celtics who have allowed +2.85 points above expectations to point guards. In addition, over the last 10 games, they have surrendered the second most fantasy points per game to guards. Another thing that stands out, is that this matchup has the highest implied point total of the slate and just a 3.5 point spread, so it should be close and high scoring game.
Ty Lawson – Lawson has played 23 minutes in each of the last three games, while topping 20 fantasy points in each of those contests. Tonight the Kings take on the Cavs who are giving up the fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards and have allowed +2.83 points above expectations. Lawson has a steal in four straight games and at least five dimes in his last three. He contributes in more than one way and at this price point, it should not be too difficult to pay off his salary.
Garrett Temple – Temple has moved into the starting lineup for the Kings with Rudy Gay out. Over the last four games, he is averaging 31.5 minutes, 10.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, one steal, and over 20 fantasy points per game. He has exceeded value 80 percent of the time in his last 10 games, by an average of 3.25 points. Temple is not going to light up the scoreboard, but does have a solidified role with big minutes and comes at a very low price.
Matthew Dellavedova – Dellavedova has started in two consecutive games and has played at least 31 minutes in each of those contests, while scoring over 26 fantasy points. He should remain in the starting rotation and play significant minutes once again tonight. If that is the case, he is priced way to low across the industry, making him a nice value play. The Sixers are giving up over 38 fantasy points per game to opposing guards this season and over 40 fantasy points in their last five games. He is both PG/SG eligible on DraftKings.
Robert Covington – Covington enters tonight’s game averaging 33.2 minutes, 14.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, two assists, 1.4 steals, 1.4 blocks, and over 30 fantasy points per game in his last five. During that stretch, he has topped 30 fantasy points three times without scoring fewer than 20 fantasy points once and scoring in double figures in each game. He will take on the Bucks who are giving up the second most fantasy points, most points, and third most assists per game to small forwards. In addition, they have allowed +4.63 points above expectations to the position. With all of the injuries to the Sixers, Covington should continue to get solid run in a great matchup, making him an enticing option in all formats tonight.
Jae Crowder – Crowder is on a nice little run, averaging 17.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.7 steals, and nearly 30 fantasy points per game over his last six. He will go up against Houston in what should be a paced up and high-scoring game, with just a 3.5 point spread. The Rockets are yielding the seventh most fantasy points per game to small forwards and have allowed +1.1 points above expectations to the position. While Crowder is not a huge upside player, he does offer a nice floor and could reach 6X at this price range, making him a solid option.
Al-Farouq Aminu – Aminu is a streaky player as far as fantasy production is concerned, but his minutes are consistent on most night. Tonight he faces the Lakers, who give up the most fantasy points per game, second most rebounds, and most steals per game to power forwards, while allowing +2.01 points above expectations to the position. Aminu has fared well against the Lakers in his two games versus them this season, averaging 31.6 minutes, 7.5 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, two blocks, one steal, and over 30 fantasy points per game. He is volatile, so I would not recommend him in cash, but does offer 6X-7X upside at his price tag, making him a nice tournament option.
James Johnson – Johnson has now scored fewer than 10 points in three consecutive games and has struggled, but is still playing big minutes for the Heat and has a solidified role in the rotation. What better way to snap out of a fun, than against the Nets, who are giving up the third most fantasy points, second most points, fourth most rebounds, second most steals, and most blocks to opposing power forwards. In addition, they have allowed +1.85 points above expectations to the position. Brooklyn yields the second most rebounds per game to opposing teams, with a -4.1 differential. They are also ranked 28th in defense efficiency and play paced up. There is not much to dislike about this matchup for Johnson.
Mason Plumlee – Plumlee’s price is a tad over what I would like it to be, but he is still affordable in comparison to the upside he offers and matchup at hand. He faces off against the Lakers who have allowed +5.86 points above expectations to opposing centers and are yielding the sixth most fantasy points per game to the position. In addition, they are surrendering the second most rebounds per game to opposing bigs. Lastly, they rank dead last in defense efficiency, while playing up-tempo basketball. Plumlee offers nice upside due to his peripheral stats and ability to stuff the stat sheet. The one thing that hurts him at times, is his inconsistent minutes, which is why he makes more sense in tournaments.
Enes Kanter – Kanter struggled in his last game, but against the Jazz that is to be expected. However, he finds himself in a great bounce back spot today. He faces the Pelicans who are yielding the most rebounds per game, with a -4.8 differential. New Orleans is also giving up the fourth most fantasy points and most rebounds per game to opposing centers, while allowing +1.71 points above expectations. In two games against them, Kanter is averaging 15.5 points, 11.5 rebounds, two blocks, and over 33 fantasy points per game. He is a center on DraftKings, but power forward on FanDuel, yet makes a nice play on both sites.
If you have any questions, you can always reach out to me via Twitter @Armando_marsal or in the Fanvice.com premium slack chat. Also, don’t forget to tune into The Final Countdown on FanVice Live for all the last minute news and analysis.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.