NBA Bargains 1/24/17
Happy Tuesday! Let us look at the games from this interesting six-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am going to keep these under the $5,000(ish) line for FanDuel (FD) and DraftKings (DK) and $9,000 for FantasyDraft (FRDA). Let’s go!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Patty Mills – SAS at TOR – In the three games since Tony Parker went out with his injury, Mills has played 22.4 minutes per game, including 20 last night. His raw usage rate is a solid 22.1%, but most importantly he has been playing at a 105.88 pace, almost six possessions per game higher than the team itself. To compare to his chalkier teammate last night, Dejounte Murray, Murray plays at a 93.67 pace over his 26.2 minutes. That means, over the course of 48 minutes, Mills would have over 12 more possessions to accrue stats with over Murray. Split that in half, which is how the point guard minutes will likely be tonight, and Mills will have six extra possessions in his 24 minutes than Murray would, making Mills, who is producing well in his time in terms of fantasy point production, a better value at a lower price point, too.
Jameer Nelson – DEN vs. UTAH – Nelson played gotcha with his chalky status last time out as a top value play, but will under the radar in what is usually perceived as a tough matchup against the Jazz. Assuming Mudiay misses again (he is questionable) then Nelson will start and get 30 minutes in a game that Vegas has as a 211.5 total and the Nuggets two point favorites. Low owned Nelson is the Nelson you want to roster and he is still cheap (4K on DK, 3.7K on FD, 7.4K on FDraft).
Norman Powell – TOR vs. SAS – Powell is today’s chalky chalk, assuming he does get the nod for the doubtful DeMar DeRozan, as it is Powell that usually gets the call, not Cory Joseph, to fill in DeRozan’s shoes. Last season, in four games with DeRo out, Powell averaged 36 minutes, 24.4% raw usage, and 37 DK points. With Kyle Lowry on the court (which was only one of those four games), the minutes drop to 31, the usage rose to 26.7%, but his DK points dropped to 20. He is very cheap, so as a cash game play, it is worthwhile, landing at 6.7K on FDraft, 3.4K on DK and 3.9K on FD.
Alec Burks – UTAH at DEN – Burks is being brought back slowly, but he is a usage king when on the court, scoring 21.50 and 20.50 in a total of 43 minutes over the last two games. Burks is still min priced and gets the Nuggets, who are #5 in pace this season.
P.J. Tucker – PHX vs. MIN – A small part of me has died listing the epically low usage Tucker here, but in the last two games, Tucker has managed 17% raw usage and has been the higher ceiling play over the more popular T.J. Warren (12%) over the same. Tucker is seeing steady minutes, has the undying trust of Earl Watson and will be covering the high usage Andrew Wiggins, providing opportunity for the peripheral stats that usually help Tucker get to a reasonable fantasy point total.
DeMarre Carroll – TOR vs. SAS – Will likely see a lot of court time tonight with the likelihood of Kawhi Leonard playing after resting Monday night. Carroll is 4.5K on DK and 4.3K on FD, making him a solid value play on those two sites. His raw usage over the last two games (17%) is higher than Terrence Ross (16.6), who may be a popular play in DeRozan’s absence as well.
Jason Smith – WAS at BOS – Almost minimum priced across the industry, Smith has been getting 20 minutes per game over the last four games and peeling off 19.2% raw usage in those games. With a game now against the perimeter focused Celtics big favoring Smith over Marcin Gortat, it could mean more minutes for Smith against the seventh worst defense in the league over the last ten games.
Taj Gibson – CHI at ORL – Solid minutes, solid role, good matchup. Gibson gets a matchup like the Pelicans, where he went for 40.50 DK points in 32 minutes. Orlando is the sixth fastest pace and tenth worst defense over the past ten games and Gibson should be called on for defense against the active Orlando frontcourt.
Lucas Nogueira – TOR vs. SAS – Chances are that Patrick Patterson sits and, with the Spurs likely to roll David Lee in the five for 25 or so minutes tonight, Nogueira would be the best fit in the middle for the Raptors tonight for 25-30 minutes. At his current prices (3.8K on FD, 4K on DK, and 7.8K on FDraft), Lucas could easily see 30 fantasy points in this matchup, making him a fabulous value.
Dewayne Dedmon – SAS at TOR – Whether or not you roster Dedmon is based on how many minutes you think he will play. I believe he plays the usual 14-19 he has typically played, which would not make him a solid play. However, if he starts again, as he did against Brooklyn last night, he very well would end up with 25-28 minutes, which would make him a great value at his price points across the industry. Watch the news to see who starts for the Spurs. If it is Lee at center, do not go to Dedmon, but if he starts, he is a solid value play at nearly a fantasy point per minute.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.