NBA Bargains –12/31/16
We end 2016 with a five-game NBA main slate and some bargain plays that can open up some salary relief in order to fit in some of the high-end expensive players in good spots. Let’s jump right into it and go over some of tonight’s bargains.
Patrick Beverley – In his last seven games, Beverley is averaging 11.4 points, four assists, 8.3 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. During that stretch, he is also averaging 30 fantasy points per game. He is not a huge scorer, but his peripheral stats compensate for that. Tonight he has a favorable matchup against the Knicks who are in the bottom seven as far as defense efficiency is concerned.
Raymond Felton – Felton had a huge game on Friday night as he covered for Chris Paul, scoring over 40 fantasy points. He may be asked to play heavy minutes again tonight is Paul cannot play and draws a good matchup against the Thunder. Point guards are averaging over 45 fantasy points per game against Oklahoma City. This should be a paced up game with plenty of touch opportunities. Felton is volatile, but at his price he can also smash value.
Rodney Hood – After playing limited minutes for a couple of game as he returned from an illness, Hood played 32 minutes on Thursday and came through in a big way. He scored 20 points with a steal and two dimes. That performance was good for over 20 fantasy points. He is under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which is way too cheap for a player of his caliber. He also has a great matchup against the Suns who are yielding the sixth most fantasy points and second most points to opposing shooting guards. They play at a fast pace and are sixth worst in defense efficiency. Assuming Hood plays starter minutes, he should be able to exceed his salary.
Justin Holiday – Holiday is only an option if Courtney Lee sits tonight’s game out. With Lee absent in his last two games due to a sore wrist, Holiday is averaging 31 minutes, 11 points, five rebounds, four assists, one block, one steal, and over 25 fantasy points per game. He comes at a modest price across the industry and faces a Rockets defense that is yielding the fourth most fantasy points per game to shooting guards. In addition, they play paced up, creating more touch opportunities.
T.J. Warren – This is a tough matchup for Warren and not one I am too excited about, but on a short slate like the one at hand, sometimes we have to make sacrifices. Warren is playing over 30 minutes per game in his last five and has displayed his 30+ fantasy point upside a couple of times during that stretch. He also owns a 22.5 percent usage rate. Temper your expectations with Warren, but if you need a small forward who offers upside and should play upwards of 30 minutes, he is your guy.
Trevor Ariza – Ariza is coming off of a big night where he scored 18 points with seven assists, four boards and two steals, while draining five from beyond the arc. Tonight he faces a Knicks team that ranks seventh worst in defense efficiency. Ariza is typically priced in this range and is one of those players where he either exceeds values by a lot or underwhelms. The last time he faced the Knicks, he scored over 25 fantasy points.
Derrick Favors – Favors is still on a minutes restriction, but he has now played over 20 minutes in each of his last two games and the Jazz appear to be increasing his minutes in each game. He remains at very cheap price across the industry for a player of his caliber and has a favorable matchup tonight. The Suns are giving up the sixth most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards and have allowed +1.31 points above expectations. Favors grabbed 12 boards in his last game and now has 25 rebounds in his last three games. He should play 23-27 minutes, which should be enough to outperform his salary.
Steven Adams/Enes Kanter – Both Adams and Kanter continue to have a big role on this offense and are very efficient. Adams is averaging 27 minutes, 12.8 points, 10 rebounds, 1.3 blocks and over 29 fantasy points per game in his last four. Kanter is averaging 28.6 minutes, 18.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and over 28 fantasy points in his last five games. This duo has been on lately and both come at a very affordable price. Kanter is only center eligible on DraftKings and power forward eligible on FanDuel.
Montrezl Harrell – Harrell has done a nice job filling in for Clint Capela. Harrell is averaging 27 minutes, 16.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.4 blocks and over 26 fantasy points per game in his last five. Tonight he faces the Knicks who are giving up the second most fantasy points and most points per game to centers. Harrell is both power forward and center eligible on DraftKings which is a bonus.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.