NBA Bargains – 12/17/2016
Welcome to the weekend! To celebrate, let us look at the challenging six-game main slate tonight and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am going to keep these under the $5,000 line for both FanDuel (FD) and DraftKings (DK). Let’s go!
NOTE: As always, there are some solid plays in here but, as news emerges throughout the day more value develops. Tune into our daily NBA shows for the latest takes and values right up until lineup lock.
Jameer Nelson – DEN vs. NYK – $4,100 (DK), $4,400 (FD) – High total game (217.5), close spread (2.5), 25 or so minutes for Nelson, who has the Michael Malone seal of approval by default – Emmanuel Mudiay must prove his worthiness to finish games now. It is thin at value PG as of this writing, so the solid Nelson is in play as of now.
Ricky Rubio – MIN vs. HOU – $5,000 (DK) – Low ceiling cash game play here. You may blush due to the Patrick Beverley impact, but Rubio is not going to score to accrue value here. The 219.5 total will indicate the amount of possessions and with Rubio now consistently getting low 30s minutes, he can get to the 30-32 DK points needed for cash here.
Gary Harris – DEN vs. NYK – $4,800 (FD), $4,700 (DK) – Most of us missed our chance at the big Harris game, his first one back from injury, and now must chase a little. In a vacuum, however, Harris is still a fine play even if you did not look at what he did against the Blazers. As with Nelson, it is a high total, Harris will start, giving him the all-important fourth shift and Malone loves him as he is their best backcourt defender, and he has a solid 18% raw usage rate.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – DET vs. IND – $4,600 (DK) – Another chase candidate here, but the home game, usual mid 30s minutes and a strong 19-20% raw usage rate here at a solid price means you can go there again.
C.J. Miles – IND at DET – $4,300 (DK), $4,400 (FD) – With Rodney Stuckey and Monta Ellis missing another game, Miles stands to log 30 minutes and expected 19-20% raw usage, which brings a mid 20s fantasy point night as a median performance here.
Maurice Harkless – POR at GSW – $4,800 (DK), $4,800 (FD) – With No Aminu and a 231 game total, Harkless has a fair chance at a 30 fantasy point night here if the Blazers keep the game close. If you wish for something safer, head to Atlanta and find Thabo Sefolosha, but the promise of an uptempo game means Harkless is the better tourney option here.
Jon Leuer – DET vs. IND – $4,200 (DK), $4,600 (FD) – Leuer is coming off of back to back excellent outings, scoring over 30 fantasy points in both contests. He is home against an average defensive Pacers team and has received 28+ minutes in three of the last four contests.
Marvin Williams – CHA at ATL – $4,000 (DK), $4,400 (FD) – Marvin back in the ATL, where it all started. Williams will be needed defensively against Paul Millsap and should get his 30 minutes in tonight against a Hawks team that is second worst, defensively, over the last 10 games, with 112 points per 100 possessions.
Tristan Thompson – CLE vs. LAL – $4,900 (DK), $4,900 (FD) – The Lakers are the eighth worst defense over the last 10 games and Thompson should gather offensive rebounds as L.A. gives up the 10th highest offensive rebounding this season.
Cody Zeller – CHA at ATL–$4,200 (DK), $4,900 (FD) – A stronger play on DraftKings, the Hornets will need Zeller’s defense to combat Dwight Howard, so he may linger in the game longer than his usual 28 minutes tonight, depending on how the Hawks use Howard on a back to back.
Good luck and good winning tonight! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.