NBA Bargains – 12/15/2016
Many of the statuses of the bargain players tonight are hinging on the availability of other players on their respective teams. As a whole, the slate tonight looks fantastic with all the games possessing over/unders of at least 208 and only one game over an 8.0 point spread. With the Warriors, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Anthony Davis in play, punt plays are going to be absolute necessary in order to make roster building fun tonight. Without further ado, let’s get to work…
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Note: all fantasy point references are in regards to the scoring system on both DraftKings (DK) and FantasyDraft (FDr) which are the exact same other than triple-double bonus
Point Guards (PGs)
Brandon Jennings/Leandro Barbosa – Both Brandon Jennings and Leandro Barbosa would be the next men up in the rotation if either Derrick Rose or Brandon Knight were to sit tonight (both are listed as questionable). Jennings will lock into the starting role while Barbosa would emerge as the only player capable as playing point guard off the bench for the Suns (Tyler Ulis was sent to the D-League). Even with Knight active, Barbosa has played 28-plus minutes in two of the last three games and the Suns are very likely going to get creamed by the Spurs. If so, it could mean more minutes for the backups and there quite literally is not another player on the roster who can handle the ball amongst the second/third unit. Meanwhile, Jennings is a volatile chucker but has topped 24 fantasy points in both of his starts this season and attempted at least 10 field goal attempts in each. This game has a possibility for blowout as well but if it stays close Jennings should be shooting plenty.
Patty Mills, Spurs – On the second end of a back-to-back, Tony Parker is a virtual lock to sit which means Patty Mills will enjoy an extended role. While he may not start, Mills has topped 25 fantasy points in seven of the eight games Parker has sat. The only exception came on Nov. 5 against the Clippers at home when he shot 1-7 from the field. Otherwise, Mills has been a staple of consistency sans one of the team’s veteran leaders.
Shooting Guards (SGs)
Devin Booker, Suns – The price tag here is simply too cheap for Devin Booker regardless of the matchup and recent shooting funk. As per usual, he should be delegated to tournaments only, but he has still shown upside in this very spot. In fact, Booker has topped 24 fantasy points in each of his last two outings against the Spurs including a 33.25 fantasy point “outburst” on Jan. 21 of last season. He even shot 33-percent the last go-around and still managed 24 fantasy points in 24 minutes. Sure the presence of Kawhi Leonard is a bit disconcerting but Booker leads the team in minutes played per game and is the type of shooter who can get hot at any time. Booker got hot against a similarly dominant team on the defensive end, the Jazz, just five games ago and shot 69.2-percent against them en route to 21 real points. While he is no sure thing by any means, he absolutely possesses the upside to top this price tag.
Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks – This play is not for the faint of heart but Malcolm Brodgon has quietly played 24, 28, 20 and 23 minutes in his last four games respectively. During that span, he has averaged 19.9 DK fantasy points per game (FPPG) and Coach Jason Kidd says “he has asked to guard many of the NBA’s top players.” Well tonight, he will have the opportunity to guard two of them between Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler. The fact that both are guards actually bodes well for Brodgon’s minutes because Kidd trusts his defense and he can now play extended minutes matched up against either. As icing on the cake, Brodgon leads all NBA rookies in three-point percentage and free throw percentage and is proving to be a huge steal from the second round of the draft. If looking for a punt at the position, this is your only option.
Small Forwards (SFs)
P.J. Tucker, Suns – Assuming both T.J. Warren and Alex Len sit (both are listed as questionable), P.J. Tucker should once again be in line for around 40 minutes tonight. In consecutive games, Tucker has topped 40 minutes and the crazy amount of playing time has led to 30.75 and 33.50 fantasy points respectively. Similarly to Booker, the matchup can basically be thrown out the window when playing these kinds of minutes and priced this cheaply. He is averaging 0.69 (nice) fantasy points per minute which equates to 27.4 fantasy points over a 40 minute span. Even if his efficiency depreciates against the Spurs, he only needs 22 fantasy points for 5x value and 26.4 fantasy points for 6x value at his current price tag on DK.
Andre Iguodala, Warriors – Zaza Pachulia is listed as doubtful and is not expected to play tonight which should open up a few additional minutes for Andre Iguodala. Of course, Iguodala will not start as that honor will likely go to JaVale McGee but the Warriors will just play more small ball than usual with the personnel difference. Sans Pachulia, Iguodala played over 30 minutes for the first time since Dec. 1 and that clearly was not a coincidence. Although he very rarely breaks out for a tournament winning performance these days, he is only priced at $3,500 tonight which significantly increases his upside. At this price, he has topped 6x value in three of his last four games. Simply put: he is a steal at this cost.
Power Forwards (PFs)
Ed Davis, Trail Blazers – In tournaments only, Ed Davis has some appeal due to the fact Al-Farouq Aminu is listed as doubtful. Over the last two games, Davis’ minutes have been down (hovering around 12-13 per game) but he averages 20.7 in games without Aminu. Furthermore, the Nuggets roster is filled with big bodies with whom Davis can match up with. If given extended time on the court, Davis is always a threat to double-double and add in some blocks. If feeling lucky, there certainly is a possibility that Davis is the golden ticket tonight.
Mirza Teletovic, Bucks – Pure shooters are volatile in nature but the $3,100 price tag on DK helps alleviate most of those concerns…as does the fact Michael Beasley is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game. With the Bucks desperately looking for scoring off the bench, this means Mirza Teletovic will be called upon for additional minutes and shots. If there is one thing Teletovic is not, it is a bashful shooter. At just $100 above the minimum, Teletovic is a guy who has been averaging 21.8 minutes per game over the last three games anyways and that was prior to the absence of Beasley. Tonight, he could flirt with the mid-20s and those who are familiar with him from his Suns days know that could translate to significant production. While the matchup against the Bulls is not ideal, all other factors suggest a usable fantasy performance is on the horizon.
Tyson Chandler, Suns – Honestly, the value options at the center position stink tonight unless you feel good about the prospects of Robin Lopez. The one tidbit of news that could enhance the situation would be Alex Len sitting once again so Tyson Chandler can continue to go crazy on the boards. At 34 years old, Chandler is still pounding the glass like a 22 year old as evident by his ridiculous 41 rebounds over the last two games. Getting to a double-double is a struggle for him in the points department but 20-plus rebounds will do just fine. Against the Spurs, expectations should be tempered a little bit but he is still one of the game’s elite rebounders if he is all alone to man the middle for his team. If Len plays, however, he is virtually unplayable at $5,400 on DK.
John Henson, Bucks – Last game, Thon Maker entered the rotation and skimmed off the top from the minutes of both Greg Monroe and John Henson. Up until that point, Henson had seemed like Coach Jason Kidd’s favorite at the position but now there is not much clarity. It is unclear whether the Maker stint was temporary or going to be an ongoing thing but Henson’s price is awfully cheap assuming it was an anomaly. The Bucks rotation is constantly a guessing game but those who guess right could win tournaments due to it. Henson has been over 5x value at this cost in seven of his last nine games including over 6x value twice during that span. In the games he topped 6x value, he went way over (37.25 and 32.50 fantasy points). So, do you have the cajones to roster him?
Good luck everyone and grind on….
If you have any questions you can reach me on Twitter @RSandersDFS or in the FanVice.com premium Slack channel.