NBA Bargains 12/01/2016
On tonight’s six game slate, the value is aplenty with the Grizzlies missing Mike Conley/Zach Randolph once again, the Heat still thin and the Rockets/Warriors slated to play in an absolute shootout (over/under currently sits at 231.5). With all this value available before late news breaks, there should be no doubt this slate is shaping up as a true stars/scrubs night…especially with a ton of the stars involved in what should be an insanely high-scoring affair. Without further ado, let’s get to work….
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Note: all fantasy point references are in regards to the scoring system on both DraftKings (DK) and FantasyDraft (FDr)
Point Guards (PGs)
Andrew Harrison, Grizzlies – After scoring a career-high 21 real points (PTS) yesterday, I expect Andrew Harrison to be extremely popular tonight in all formats…and why not? He played 35 minutes, made 7-12 shots and filled up the box score (two rebounds, four assists and three steals). Even with the monster performance, Harrison’s usage rate (USG%) in that game was only 20-percent so he probably reached his ceiling. Even so, minutes equal production in daily fantasy basketball, and it appears the team is committed to him as the starting point guard in the short term, so he should have plenty of opportunity to produce once again. By comparison, Mike Conley’s USG% this season was 25.9-percent prior to injury.
Patrick Beverley, Rockets – One sneaky start who could fly under the radar tonight is Patrick Beverley in the game expected to blow all the others away in terms of total points. Rockets/Warriors opened with an over/under of 230 and it has since gone up 1.5 points. As for the rest of the games, the Bucks/Nets total currently ranks second at 216.5 points, so clearly this game is above and beyond the game to target. The problem with this game is there are not a lot of cheap options; thankfully, Beverley stands out as the exception. Since returning from injury, Beverley has averaged 28.3 minutes per game or approximately the same exact mark from last year (28.7). In three games against the Warriors last year, Beverley posted 11.5, 27.5 and 25.5 fantasy point totals…can you guess which two games he played over 21 minutes? In the anomaly game, the team was still committed to starting Ty Lawson at that point so the rotation for the Rockets later in the season more closely resembled the way it is now. With plenty of minutes on the horizon in a fast-paced game, especially with him needed to guard Stephen Curry, Beverley is a safe investment in both cash games and tournaments.
Shooting Guards (SGs)
Sean Kilpatrick, Nets – Rostering Sean Kilpatrick sort of feels like chasing points from his career game last time out but he still remains cheap enough on both DK and FDr to provide significant value. Kilpatrick has quite clearly morphed into option 1A in the Nets offense and he is not afraid to attack whatsoever. Hell, he attempted a ridiculous 34 shots in the team’s overtime win against the Clippers on Tuesday so is there any question he will remain aggressive tonight? Sure he may see a little more defensive attention tonight but he is sort of like a poor man’s DeMar DeRozan at 65-percent of the cost. As icing on the cake, the Bucks rank 25th in defensive efficiency to opposing SGs so fire up Kilpatrick once again.
Wayne Ellington, Heat – With Josh Richardson, Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow already ruled out for tonight, Wayne Ellington is a sure thing lock-and-load in cash games. In case you missed it, Ellington played 31 minutes last night and scored 22 PTS on 14 shots. Amazingly, he remains at the minimum cost after his breakout performance. Sure there is some risk his minutes get limited a bit on the back end of a back-to-back but, again, he is only priced at the minimum. Whatever risk there would otherwise be is alleviated by his price tag. He is easily the best bet of any player in this entire article to reach 6x their value on DK.
Small Forwards (SFs)
Troy Williams, Grizzlies – Sans Mike Conley and Zach Randolph, Troy Williams’ performance last night was a bit disappointing especially considering he played 28 minutes. However, there are some positive takeaways from this performance. First, he was dealing with foul trouble so that was the main reason his minutes actually regressed from the previous two games. Secondly, Troy Daniels caught absolute fire so the team had no reason to go back to Williams when they could just play the hot hand. Lastly, Williams registered a USG% of 23.1-percent which is nearly a five percentage point boost from his yearly total of 18.6. Assuming he can avoid hacking his opponents tonight, there is a great chance he outdoes his previous performance.
Tony Snell, Bucks – For tournaments only, Tony Snell is at least worthy of consideration as he was literally the only other cheap SF I could find who was remotely viable. At this price tag on DK, Snell is averaging 4.78x value and the team is facing a Nets team allowing a league-worst 114.5 points per game. Over the course of his last three games, Snell is averaging 30.9 minutes per game so he has plenty of time to do work against a bad defense in this one. As if that were not enough, the Nets rank in the bottom seven in terms of efficiency to both SGs and SFs. Basically, if there were ever a time for him to enjoy an outlier game in terms of scoring, this would be it.
Power Forwards (PFs)
JaMychal Green, Grizzlies – Okay so JaMychal Green’s solid performance last night was aided by five steals (STLs) but remember his price rose to around $6,000 in a similar role last year over an extended period. He played a solid 33 minutes on Wednesday and it was actually the third time in his last five games that he played that exact number of minutes. Clearly, Coach David Fizdale has a plan for his rotation stints and sticks to it and there is a chance Marc Gasol sits out the back end of a back-to-back. Even though Serge Ibaka is an athletic, solid defender, the Magic rank 19th in defensive efficiency to opposing PFs this year. All-in-all, there is a lot to like about Green’s role on this offense especially for his $4,400 price tag on DK.
Jarell Martin, Grizzlies – Sure Jarell Martin only managed 11.50 fantasy points last night but he shot 1-5 from the field (20-percent) and still played 24 minutes. For his career, Martin has averaged 0.78 fantasy points per minute (FPPM) so in 24 minutes he should average closer to 19 fantasy points over the long run. Additionally, only six teams have allowed more rebounds per game to the PF position than the Magic so Martin, who has grabbed 12 rebounds in two of his last four games, can maximize his skill set in this game. He is virtually listed at the bare minimum so there is nothing to lose here by rostering him in tournaments.
Clint Capela, Rockets – Other than one blip on the radar (last game against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz), Clint Capela had been admirably consistent to this point. Prior to the Jazz game, the last time he failed to reach 29 fantasy points was Nov. 0 versus the Spurs. In what projects to be the highest scoring game of the slate, Capela should enjoy some additional scoring/rebounding opportunities against a Warriors team that plays at the third highest pace this season. The good news for Capela is he should be athletic enough to remain on the floor against the Warriors’ death lineup as necessary as well as play most of the minutes against Zaza Pachulia as long as he is on the floor. While Capela struggled against the Warriors last year, the team construction is a whole lot different this year. Hopefully people use statmuse to cause them to move off of him because there should be a very different outcome this time around. UPDATE: Nene has been ruled out so there should be even more minutes available to Capela tonight.
Cody Zeller, Hornets – Quietly, Cody Zeller is morphing into a reasonably consistent producer as he has managed at least 23.50 fantasy points in five of his last six games. At $4,400 on DK, 23.50 fantasy points would result in 5.34x value or more than enough for cash games…and the matchup just got a whole lot better. With Andrew Bogut ruled out, Zeller will now match up against the likes of Salah Mejri, Dwight Powell and Dorian Finney-Smith. Zeller produces across the board so there are many ways in which he could reach value. This is a nice added benefit because he can still find a way to make fantasy owners happy on a poor shooting night. If Powell draws the start as opposed to Mejri, Zeller would probably see an uptick in minutes as he matches up better against the shorter player (who is less of a true center).
UPDATE: With Bismack Biyombo slated to start once again, he is a viable punt at the center position as well.
Good luck everyone and grind on….
If you have any questions you can reach me on Twitter @RSandersDFS or in the FanVice.com premium Slack channel.