NBA Bargains 11/9/16
It is Wednesday and we have a healthy 11-game NBA slate tonight with some intriguing bargain plays that can open up some salary relief in order to fit in some of the high-end expensive players in good spots. Let’s jump right into it and go over some of tonight’s bargains.
Sergio Rodriguez – He is not as cheap as he was at the start of the season, but remains under market value across the industry and continues to play solid minutes, averaging 29.4 minutes per game. Tonight’s matchup against the Pacers is one that favors him as they are top five in fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards and are also playing paced up, which should create extra touches. This contest also has one of the highest projected totals of the night at 210 points.
Marcus Smart – Smart missed the first three games of the season, but since returning, he has played at least 27 minutes in each game and is averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. He is fourth in Boston with a 19.1 percent usage rate and due to some of the injuries on the team, he could see more opportunities, as he attempted 13 shots in his last game. This contest has the second highest projected total of the night and just a 1.5 point spread, with both teams expected to score over 106 points. Smart remains under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and at his price point, he is capable of providing some solid returns on your investment.
Seth Curry – Curry took full advantage last night of the injuries to the Mavs backcourt and will likely get plenty of run tonight as well, as both Devin Harris and Deron Williams will not play in this contest. Curry played 31 minutes, attempted 15 shots, scored 23 points, got three steals, four assists, and four boards, while shooting 4-of-7 from beyond the arc on Monday night. He remains at minimum price on most sites.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – We saw the bad Caldwell-Pope in his last game and those kinds of night are certainly possible, but he also offers 30+ fantasy point upside and tonight plays against a Suns team that currently plays at the second fastest pace. Phoenix is also top seven in fantasy points allowed per game to shooting guards and has surrendered +4.79 points above expectations. He is a tournament play only because of his volatility and low floor, but at his price on most sites he is capable of hitting 6-7X on any given night. The matchup and potential game scripts fits the bill for Caldwell-Pope tonight.
Marcus Morris – Morris is averaging over 30 minutes per game and owns a usage rate of 23.6 percent, while attempting double-digit shots in all but one game. He has struggled in his last two games, but this is a good matchup for him to turn it around as the Suns have allowed +4.5 points above expectations to opposing small forwards. As I mentioned above, the Suns play up-tempo basketball, which could also create some extra touches for Morris tonight. He remains under $5,900 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, in a position that I typically search for value in.
C.J. Miles – Over his last four games, Miles is averaging roughly 1.2 fantasy points per minute and playing 23.5 minutes per game. He has attempted 10 or more shots in each of the last three games and has made 11 three-pointers in that span. His shot is falling in and he is also providing some peripheral stats with steals and rebounds. The Sixers have allowed +8.14 points above expectations to small forwards. Miles is also eligible as a shooting guard in sites like DraftKings, which is a plus and the Pacers currently have the second highest implied team total of the slate adding another bonus.
Trevor Booker – Booker has put together back-to-back 30+ fantasy point games and despite a subpar usage rate of 16.1 percent, he contributes to several other categories such as boards, steals, and blocks. He has three double-doubles this season which is a 1.5 point bonus on DraftKings. The Nets are pushing the pace, which ultimately creates more touch opportunities. His price has increased, but it remains reasonable and at a point where exceeding value is not out of reach.
Derrick Favors – Favors is coming off of his best game of the season and could be a sign of things to come for him moving forward. I am aware the performance came against a bad defense and tonight’s matchup is not as appealing, but his slow start was due some knee issues and the fact that he has been able to log in at least 27 minutes in each of the last three games is a good sign that he is getting healthier. He has also attempted double-digit buckets in three straight games and recorded his first double-double of the season in his last contests. Favors is normally a $7,000 player, but is priced at $5,800 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. There is risk involved when rostering him, but also a decent amount of upside.
Jahlil Okafor – Okafor continues to see his minutes restricted, averaging 23 minutes per game over the last three games, however, he has topped 21 fantasy points in each of those games and has attempted double-digit shots in his last two games. Chances are he will not play over 25 minutes which limits upside, but he is averaging near a fantasy point per minute which would put him in a good spot to at least pay off his salary. The Pacers are giving up +4.8 points above expectations to opposing centers and are yielding 15.5 boards per game to bigs.
Andrew Bogut – Bogut has played at least 27 minutes in four of his last five games and has double-digit rebounds in three of those games, while never getting less than eight boards in that span. He is not a high usage player, but his contributions to rebounds and blocked shots, are just enough to produce fantasy points. In a game where each team will likely take a good amount of shots, Bogut could be in a good position grab some boards, after all, the Warriors are giving up 17.2 rebounds per game to centers which is second most in the league.
Note: It is always wise to keep an eye out for injury news later in the day as this could open up immense value at some positions. Usually the last hour before lock is filled with news that can be very helpful.