NBA Bargains 1/17/17
Happy Tuesday! Let us look at the games from this interesting five-game slate and find the bargain plays that make our lineups hit the top of the standings. I am going to keep these under the $5,000(ish) line for FanDuel (FD) and DraftKings (DK) and $9,000 for FantasyDraft (FRDA). Let’s go!
NOTE: Stay tuned to FanVice for updates and analysis of the breaking news in regards to the values that open up throughout the evening leading up to lineup lock.
Jameer Nelson – DEN at LAL – $3,600 (FD), $3,100 (DK), $6,000 (FDRA) – With Gary Harris doubtful to play tonight Nelson, who started the second half after Harris got hurt in the Nuggets’ last game, becomes a very popular play. Any access to 28-30 minutes in a game featuring two of the seven worst defenses over the past five games is interesting. Getting one at near minimum prices and 17-19% raw usage in scenario is even better. Likely to be chalk on a five game slate in the highest total of the night (229).
Emmanuel Mudiay – DEN at LAL – $4,500 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,800 (FDRA) – More of a FanDuel play in tournies, the same pace, total and opportunity exists for Mudiay as Nelson. He should get around 30 minutes at the point and will not have Nelson breathing down his back for minutes if Jameer plays the two in relief of Harris tonight. Also, because Nelson will be more chalky, Mudiay makes for an interesting leverage play. Usage has been down over the last ten games, but did uptick to over 20% without Harris in the last game.
Louis Williams – LAL vs. DEN – $4,600 (FD), $4,300 (DK), $8,400 (FDRA) – After Luke Walton seemingly tightened the rotation a bit and dropped Lou and Jordan Clarkson down under 20 minutes for a spell, the winds have changed again and Lou was back out for a more customary mid 20s effort his last time out, scoring over 36 DK points. This is a high pace matchup that will likely see a similar result. When Lou is in, he shoots a lot and gets to the free throw line, regularly getting to high 20s and low 30s raw usage.
Seth Curry – DAL at CHI – $3,900 (FD), $3,900 (DK), $7,700 (FDRA) – Besides Salah Mejri, nobody gets a larger fantasy point per game bump than Curry with Andrew Bogut sidelined, with almost four points per game improvement. Curry averages 26.6 minutes, 19% raw usage and 21 DK points per game when Bogut is out for the game.
Bojan Bogdanovic – BKN vs. TOR – $4,200 (FD), $4,900 (DK), $9,800 (FDRA) – As long as Bogdanovic is starting, he is a solid target at these prices on FanDuel and DraftKings. His usage is typically low to mid 20s and the minutes in the mid 20s, giving the shooting plenty of upside when he is hitting his shots. He scored 26.8 FD points in the recent matchup with the Raptors as well.
DeMarre Carroll – TOR at BKN – $4,600 (FD), $5,200 (DK), $10,200 (FDRA) – FanDuel is the only site where he still qualifies as a value play by my stated standards, but you can consider him over there in this high total between two bottom tier defense and sneaky pace game. Carroll played 29 minutes on 1/13 against the Nets and delivered a 24% usage, 16 shot attempt, 18 points, 11 rebound game, and 31.2 FD points in the process.
Kenneth Faried – DEN at LAL – $4,300 (FD), $4,400 (DK), $8,700 (FDRA) – Things are thin in terms of value at power forward, so we can hope that Darrell Arthur is out tonight, which gives Faried a 2-3 fantasy point boost in Arthur’s absence. He got 30+ minutes the last time out, but do not roster based on that expectation. Much more reasonable is a 24-25 minute effort with Arthur out, and a fantasy point per minute against the Lakers.
Lucas Nogueira – TOR at BKN – $3,800 (FD), $4,100 (DK), $8,100 (FDRA) – Bebe Nogueira has been playing more in the stead of Patrick Patterson, who is questionable again tonight. A high peripherals per minute play, Bebe has scored 18.75, 31.25 and 18.50 in the last three games.
Timofey Mozgov – LAL vs. DEN – $3,500 (FD), $3,000 (DK), $6,000 (FDRA) – Mozgov gets revenge on his original team, the Nuggets, and has been playing a solid 20 minutes per game with 19-20% usage over the last week of games. Given the Nuggets will likely stay big tonight with Nikola Jokic, Jusef Nurkic and Kenneth Faried, Mozgov is like to see the same 20-25 minutes and fantasy point per minutes production, with upside in this high total, low defense game.
Good luck, players! – JW
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jaywalker72) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.